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Game Recap
BUF5
WPG3
BUF beat WPG 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.05 expected goals to 3.50. WPG outshot BUF 36 to 17. R. McLeod led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Reimer stopped 33 of 36.
Team Stats
BUFWPG
17Shots on goal36
1.05Expected goals3.50
31Shot attempts71
125v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play1/3
20Hits24
13Blocked shots7
6Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways11
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 1.05 xGWPG 3.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:33 | 2:52 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:09 | 3:02 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 3:04 |
| T. Kozak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:13 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:12 | 2:56 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:48 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 2:48 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 3:26 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 1:36 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:04 |
| B. Murray | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:57 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:04 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:53 | 3:56 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:13 | 0:04 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 21:19 | 1:10 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 2:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 21:12 | 4:15 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:58 | 4:12 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:29 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:26 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:36 | 1:29 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 4:16 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:02 | 4:12 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 1:23 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:53 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:22 | 1:16 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 25:24 | 4:25 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:02 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 16 | 12 | 4 | .750 | 58:19 | Loss |
| C. Hellebuyck | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.5, WPG 3.7 | BUF 5, WPG 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 25.4, WPG 28.7 | BUF 17, WPG 36 |
| Win chance | WPG 68% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 4 | 1.29 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.0 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 4 | 0.97 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.4 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.3 | 4 | 0.97 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.0 | 4 | 1.17 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.5 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 2 | 0.48 | 4 | 19% | 1 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG B. Tanev | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 2 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF B. Murray | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.