WSH beat BUF 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.41 expected goals to 2.27. WSH outshot BUF 31 to 21. J. Carlson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Strome had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Thompson stopped 19 of 21.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.27 xGWSH 3.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:18 |
| J.Kulich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 1:58 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 1:14 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:58 | 2:02 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:58 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:18 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:30 | 2:18 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 12:15 | 0:58 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26:29 | 1:12 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 28:33 | 2:04 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 57:18 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:38 | 3:06 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:43 | 2:43 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:27 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 2:43 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:27 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:51 | 0:04 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:59 | 2:43 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:27 | 3:10 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:27 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.0, WSH 3.3 | BUF 2, WSH 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 28.1, WSH 29.1 | BUF 21, WSH 31 |
| Win chance | WSH 56% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.5 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.3 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 5 | 0.54 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 3 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 5 | 0.96 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF R. Johnson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.