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Game Recap
CAR5
ANA2
CAR beat ANA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 6.14 expected goals to 4.13. T. Hall scored three for CAR. T. Terry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. F. Andersen stopped 35 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 7:59CARM. Jankowski0.04 xG
- 2nd 13:04ANAA. Killorn0.13 xG
- 2nd 14:37CARJ. Martinook0.28 xG
- 3rd 2:32CART. HallPP0.57 xG
- 3rd 16:37ANAT. Zegras0.79 xG
- 3rd 17:13CART. Hall0.19 xG
- 3rd 18:02CART. HallEN0.72 xG
Team Stats
CARANA
37Shots on goal37
6.14Expected goals4.13
79Shot attempts60
295v5 shots on goal31
1/3Power play0/6
9Hits24
8Blocked shots16
12Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways14
8Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 6.14 xGANA 4.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:41 | 3:11 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:33 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 3:11 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 3:11 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:51 | 0:37 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:37 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 3:11 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:04 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:37 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:14 | 3:11 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13:46 | 0:37 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 59:57 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 7:20 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 3:34 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:15 | 7:33 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:48 | 7:36 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 7:03 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:08 | 3:37 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:58 | 3:57 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 14:21 | 2:11 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:00 | 1:36 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:17 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:10 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:55 | 6:37 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:07 | 4:45 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:17 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:17 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.4, ANA 2.7 | CAR 5, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 33.0, ANA 25.1 | CAR 37, ANA 37 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.6 | 5 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 0 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.1 | 6 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.0 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 3 | 21% | 3 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.9 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.5 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 5 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.4 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.