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Game Recap
CAR1
BOS2
BOS beat CAR 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.88 expected goals to 2.17. C. Mittelstadt led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Kastelic had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Swayman stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 3rd 1:27BOSC. Mittelstadt0.21 xG
- 3rd 5:05BOSV. Arvidsson0.09 xG
- 3rd 17:11CARA. Nikishin0.07 xG
Team Stats
CARBOS
29Shots on goal22
2.17Expected goals3.88
63Shot attempts49
245v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play0/1
21Hits26
11Blocked shots21
2Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways9
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.17 xGBOS 3.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:56 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:54 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:20 | 0:54 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:06 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:06 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:55 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:04 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Nadeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 1:05 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:41 | 1:08 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:52 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Legault | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 58:37 | Loss |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:39 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:45 | 1:21 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:22 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:59 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:21 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:38 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:01 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:09 | 1:22 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:43 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:39 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:38 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 59:34 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven14:09J. Blake14:53T. Hall13:09
Line 2J. Staal14:20J. Martinook14:56A. Svechnikov13:36
Line 4J. Kotkaniemi11:41B. Nadeau10:00M. Jankowski9:19
Pair 1A. Nikishin21:35S. Walker19:26
Pair 2J. Chatfield19:51J. Nystrom16:25
Pair 3M. Reilly16:57C. Legault14:19
BOS
Line 1M. Geekie14:05M. Khusnutdinov14:30D. Pastrnak14:06
Line 2P. Zacha13:52C. Mittelstadt14:21V. Arvidsson13:49
Line 3M. Kastelic13:54F. Minten13:13T. Jeannot13:49
Line 4S. Kuraly12:25M. Eyssimont12:19J. Beecher11:33
Pair 1C. McAvoy21:27N. Zadorov19:30
Pair 2H. Lindholm19:32A. Peeke21:00
Pair 3H. Jokiharju13:09J. Aspirot14:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, BOS 2.8 | CAR 1, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.8, BOS 24.5 | CAR 29, BOS 22 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.4 | 4 | 1.18 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.8 | 4 | 0.84 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 5 | 0.89 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR B. Nadeau | 1.8 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.5 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.1 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.