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Game Recap
CAR2
BUF4
BUF beat CAR 4-2, with the chances close: 3.16 expected goals to 3.41. CAR outshot BUF 37 to 24. R. McLeod scored three for BUF. B. Burns had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. U. Luukkonen stopped 35 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Team Stats
CARBUF
37Shots on goal24
3.41Expected goals3.16
91Shot attempts45
275v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play0/1
11Hits16
12Blocked shots25
2Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways20
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.41 xGBUF 3.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 4:02 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:46 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:01 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 3:57 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:57 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:58 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:03 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 2:03 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:46 | 2:03 |
| J. Slavin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:13 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:44 | 3:57 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tokarski | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 57:43 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McLeod | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:22 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:22 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:05 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:33 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:24 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:33 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:35 | 1:34 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:25 | 0:05 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:31 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:05 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:26 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:26 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:23 | 1:34 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, BUF 2.7 | CAR 2, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.7, BUF 25.6 | CAR 37, BUF 24 |
| Win chance | CAR 59% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 5 | 1.04 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.3 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 2 | 0.66 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 8 | 0.48 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 3 | 15% | 3 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.