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Game Recap
CAR1
BUF4
BUF beat CAR 4-1, with the chances close: 4.18 expected goals to 3.71. CAR outshot BUF 30 to 21. R. McLeod led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Quinn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. U. Luukkonen stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 5:51BUFA. TuchPP0.15 xG
- 1st 14:36CARS. GostisbeherePP0.15 xG
- 2nd 3:55BUFJ. Quinn0.10 xG
- 2nd 18:36BUFB. Malenstyn0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:38BUFT. ThompsonEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
CARBUF
30Shots on goal21
3.71Expected goals4.18
78Shot attempts46
215v5 shots on goal16
1/4Power play1/4
18Hits27
9Blocked shots21
8Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways17
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.71 xGBUF 4.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:09 | 3:31 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 21:03 | 3:35 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:35 | 3:58 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:13 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 1:49 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:33 | 3:53 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:14 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:08 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:23 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:06 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:54 | 0:06 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:10 | 4:23 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:18 | 2:02 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:11 | 1:24 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:08 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:06 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:59 | 0:06 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 57:24 | Loss |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:27 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:39 | 4:22 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 4:15 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:23 | 4:23 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 4:09 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:26 | 1:32 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:41 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 23:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:34 | 4:18 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:25 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:33 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1S. Jarvis14:27S. Aho14:05A. Svechnikov12:53
Line 2L. Stankoven13:50J. Blake13:39N. Ehlers11:29
Line 3T. Hall10:50E. Robinson11:24M. Jankowski11:16
Line 4J. Martinook8:53W. Carrier8:48
Pair 1S. Gostisbehere13:39S. Walker14:46
Pair 2J. Chatfield14:04K. Miller15:14
Pair 3A. Nikishin13:45J. Nystrom12:16
BUF
Line 2T. Thompson12:42J. Doan12:13A. Tuch10:34
Line 3N. Ostlund12:10T. Kozak11:14Z. Benson10:18
Line 4B. Malenstyn9:02P. Krebs7:48J. Dunne7:20
Pair 1M. Samuelsson16:43R. Dahlin16:34
Pair 2C. Timmins15:49B. Byram15:00
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.6, BUF 3.0 | CAR 1, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 32.5, BUF 25.7 | CAR 30, BUF 21 |
| Win chance | CAR 59% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 5 | 0.79 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.2 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.1 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 6 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.6 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.