Game Recap: CAR 1, CBJ 5, March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR1

FinalTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat CAR 5-1, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.44. C. Coyle led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Olivier had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Greaves stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	1	0	1
CBJ	2	2	1	5

1st 5:25CBJM. MarchmentPP0.14 xG
1st 19:05CBJC. CoylePP0.16 xG
2nd 14:05CARA. Svechnikov0.22 xG
2nd 17:29CBJD. Heinen0.18 xG
2nd 18:03CBJD. Mateychuk0.02 xG
3rd 7:38CBJM. Olivier0.14 xG

Team Stats

CARCBJ

29Shots on goal30

2.44Expected goals2.74

63Shot attempts61

235v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play2/5

29Hits11

18Blocked shots23

17Penalty minutes9

17Giveaways17

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.44 xGCBJ 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR29 on goal, 1 scored

CBJ30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:46	1:36
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	14:23	1:03
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	17:02	1:01
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	8	16:39	1:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:01	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:59	0:07
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	2	14:41	0:59
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:34	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:29	0:57
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	13:24	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	5	12:31	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	10:50	1:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	19:18	1:01
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	23:25	0:42
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	20:51	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	19:56	0:17
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	18:44	0:17
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	30	25	5	.833	59:57	Loss
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	3	4	4	0	0	+2	0	18:31	5:49
A. Fantilli	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	-1	0	18:34	6:25
C. Sillinger	C	0	2	2	1	1	2	+2	0	16:07	1:48
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:46	5:47
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	14:07	1:58
M. Olivier	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	5	11:27	0:02
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:14	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	19:15	6:28
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	16:25	0:02
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	14:20	2:34
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:02
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	11:45	0:37
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	2	22:10	6:02
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	17:18	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	20:48	2:20
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	20:40	1:56
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:38	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	16:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1M. Jankowski12:13W. Carrier13:07N. Deslauriers11:23

Line 2L. Stankoven12:29J. Blake12:35T. Hall9:50

Line 3J. Staal10:53N. Ehlers12:12J. Martinook9:14

Line 4S. Jarvis13:48S. Aho12:37A. Svechnikov12:23

Pair 1S. Walker16:29K. Miller18:09

Pair 2M. Reilly15:40A. Nikishin16:49

Pair 3J. Slavin14:10J. Chatfield13:59

CBJ

Line 1B. Jenner15:03I. Lundestrom12:29D. Heinen11:14

Line 2K. Marchenko12:31A. Fantilli11:53M. Marchment11:00

Line 3C. Coyle11:06C. Sillinger13:03M. Olivier11:22

Line 4S. Monahan10:39K. Johnson10:59C. Garland11:08

Pair 1E. Gudbranson15:41D. Fabbro15:15

Pair 2D. Severson17:29Z. Werenski15:11

Pair 3I. Provorov16:45D. Mateychuk15:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, CBJ 3.0	CAR 1, CBJ 5
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	CAR 30.5, CBJ 25.7	CAR 29, CBJ 30
Win chance	CAR 55%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	1	0.81	0	30%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.7	3	0.86	1	18%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	1	0.85	0	30%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	2	0.80	1	28%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.4	1	0.93	0	32%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	1	0.75	2	28%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	2	0.75	1	26%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	3	0.53	0	22%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	1	0.29	0	9%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	1	0.46	0	18%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	2	0.71	1	26%	1
CAR T. Hall	1.7	2	0.54	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.7	4	0.71	4	22%	1
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	4	0.32	0	8%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	1	0.46	0	10%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	0	0.58	1	19%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.5	3	0.43	0	18%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	3	0.27	0	9%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	2	0.43	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	1	0.42	0	17%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	1	0.34	1	11%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.3	2	0.20	0	5%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	2	0.37	0	14%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.3	1	0.35	2	12%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	2	0.43	0	15%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.2	4	0.37	1	16%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	1	0.37	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	2	0.30	1	13%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.27	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	1	0.32	1	8%	1
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	2	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.7	0	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.