Game Recap: CAR 5, CBJ 2, March 31, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalTue, Mar 31, 2026Every game that night

CBJ2

CAR beat CBJ 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.33 expected goals to 3.34. CAR outshot CBJ 33 to 25. N. Ehlers led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Fantilli had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. B. Bussi stopped 23 of 25.

Team Stats

CARCBJ

33Shots on goal25

4.33Expected goals3.34

74Shot attempts51

265v5 shots on goal20

3/5Power play0/3

18Hits23

10Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways12

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 4.33 xGCBJ 3.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR32 on goal, 4 scored

CBJ25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	0	18:23	5:25
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	2	16:29	5:45
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	19:29	5:42
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	2	15:54	2:21
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	15:27	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:27	1:23
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:00	5:46
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	16:41	1:18
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	2	16:25	2:19
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:48	2:24
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:38	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:01	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:47	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:42	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	0	17:39	5:42
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:41	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	17:52	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:56	2:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	25	23	2	.920	59:42	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	0	18:20	3:37
M. Marchment	LW	0	2	2	0	3	2	+2	2	17:22	2:52
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	+1	0	18:06	2:59
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	20:06	1:21
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	0	5	5	-2	0	18:58	0:12
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	18:46	3:03
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:16	1:11
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:30	0:47
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:40	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:07	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7:48	1:57
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	7:34	0:47
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	27:29	3:34
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	25:21	0:38
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	21:21	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	17:55	0:47
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:10	1:22
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	32	28	4	.875	58:55	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall13:24J. Blake14:00L. Stankoven13:33

Line 2J. Staal13:00J. Martinook13:18N. Ehlers12:58

Line 3S. Aho11:07S. Jarvis10:46A. Svechnikov9:39

Line 4M. Jankowski8:32E. Robinson7:36W. Carrier9:38

Pair 1J. Slavin17:58J. Chatfield18:02

Pair 2S. Walker15:35K. Miller16:16

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere10:52A. Nikishin12:26

CBJ

Line 1A. Fantilli14:14K. Marchenko13:50M. Marchment13:37

Line 2B. Jenner15:25C. Garland13:05S. Monahan13:22

Line 3D. Heinen12:22C. Sillinger11:51C. Coyle9:46

Line 4I. Lundestrom7:07K. Johnson5:51M. Wood6:47

Pair 1Z. Werenski23:10D. Fabbro15:32

Pair 2E. Gudbranson14:51D. Mateychuk12:52

Pair 3I. Provorov17:48E. Zamula7:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.3, CBJ 2.9	CAR 5, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	CAR 30.9, CBJ 25.1	CAR 33, CBJ 25
Win chance	CAR 55%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.8	3	0.92	1	18%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	1	0.76	0	29%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	5	0.85	2	30%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	3	0.75	3	26%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	5	0.77	1	28%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.4	3	0.87	1	30%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	1	0.70	2	25%	1
CAR S. Walker	2.1	3	0.29	0	9%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	3	0.52	0	21%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	2	0.45	1	18%	1
CAR T. Hall	1.9	0	0.55	0	20%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.8	0	0.66	2	24%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.8	0	0.51	0	21%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	2	0.57	1	13%	1
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	0	0.67	0	21%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	4	0.29	1	8%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.6	2	0.42	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	3	0.42	0	13%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	1	0.36	0	11%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.44	0	18%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	4	0.57	0	19%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.24	1	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	2	0.36	1	14%	1
CBJ C. Garland	1.4	0	0.40	0	15%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	0	0.41	0	15%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.3	1	0.33	0	7%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.0	2	0.18	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.9	1	0.31	0	13%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.25	1	12%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	1	0.21	0	6%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.7	0	0.26	0	8%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.4	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.