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Game Recap
CAR2
FinalSun, Oct 18, 2026Every game that night
CGY3

CGY beat CAR 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.62 expected goals to 3.46. M. Frost led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Y. Sharangovich had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Cooley stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CAR0202
CGY0213
  1. 2nd 6:09CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.04 xG
  2. 2nd 18:30CGYM. Gridin0.09 xG
  3. 2nd 19:39CGYM. FrostPP0.08 xG
  4. 2nd 19:56CARJ. Chatfield0.01 xG
  5. 3rd 15:32CGYY. Sharangovich0.21 xG

Team Stats

CARCGY
36Shots on goal34
3.46Expected goals2.62
79Shot attempts55
295v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/4
18Hits15
14Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways10
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.46 xGCGY 2.62 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCAR goal, 6:09CGY goal, 18:30CGY goal, 19:39CAR goal, 19:56CGY goal, 15:32

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR34 on goal, 2 scored
CGY32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC011300+1021:303:13
J. KotkaniemiC101421+1212:461:46
E. RobinsonLW011221+1012:080:00
N. DeslauriersLW011011+107:140:00
L. StankovenC000301-2018:160:49
J. BlakeRW000200-2016:562:54
A. SvechnikovRW000100+1016:403:17
N. EhlersLW0003000016:242:14
J. MartinookLW0002100015:550:00
W. CarrierLW000241+1014:220:00
F. Unger SörumRW0000010213:570:59
B. NadeauLW000111-2012:560:41
J. ChatfieldD1013130022:330:07
J. SlavinD0113000021:520:00
S. WalkerD0002220022:050:00
K. MillerD0002010220:591:18
S. GostisbehereD0003100016:512:42
M. ReillyD0000310211:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
B. Bussi34313.91258:11Loss
P. Kochetkov000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. FrostC112300+1015:524:38
J. FarabeeLW0112010019:454:49
M. CoronatoRW011300+1219:314:43
Y. SharangovichC1016000016:422:22
M. GridinRW1012100015:514:49
J. CastagnaC0002220015:520:00
A. SunievLW000010+1015:412:11
R. StromeC000001-2013:412:14
M. BacklundC000200+1213:320:00
M. PospisilC000120-2013:200:00
A. KlapkaRW0004420012:192:04
B. OthmannLW0001200010:540:00
J. MiddletonD0111020018:130:00
Z. ParekhD0111110016:494:39
S. NemecD0001110021:572:21
K. BahlD0003010021:010:00
Z. WhitecloudD0001140019:070:10
Y. KuznetsovD0001010016:060:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Cooley36342.94459:47Win
D. Wolf000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:13A. Svechnikov12:48W. Carrier14:10
Line 2N. Ehlers12:21F. Sörum12:58J. Martinook11:41
Line 3B. Nadeau12:15J. Blake12:00L. Stankoven11:18
Line 4E. Robinson9:37J. Kotkaniemi10:19N. Deslauriers7:01
Pair 1J. Slavin18:09J. Chatfield18:21
Pair 2S. Walker17:21K. Miller17:20
Pair 3M. Reilly10:38S. Gostisbehere12:20

CGY

Line 1R. Strome11:27M. Pospisil11:30M. Gridin11:02
Line 2M. Backlund12:46M. Coronato14:02J. Farabee11:52
Line 3J. Castagna13:00B. Othmann10:41A. Klapka10:02
Line 4A. Suniev12:46M. Frost10:12Y. Sharangovich11:33
Pair 1S. Nemec18:49K. Bahl18:18
Pair 2J. Middleton14:59Z. Whitecloud15:49
Pair 3Y. Kuznetsov14:05Z. Parekh11:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 19 overs hit (63%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5-120+1061Under
CAR J. Blake2.5+115-1402Under
CAR L. Stankoven2.5+122-1403Over
CGY M. Backlund2.5+150-1782Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5+144-1803Over
CAR N. Ehlers2.5+125-1483Over
CAR S. Aho2.5-102-1203Over
CGY A. Suniev1.5+105-1450Under
CAR B. Nadeau1.5+105-1301Under
CGY J. Farabee1.5-140+1162Over
CAR J. Slavin1.5+105-1353Over
CAR K. Miller1.5+105-1302Over
CGY M. Frost1.5-115+1003Over
CGY M. Gridin1.5-120+1002Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-118+1003Over
CGY S. Nemec1.5-105-1301Under
CAR S. Walker1.5-115-1102Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5+105-1306Over
CGY Z. Parekh1.5+120-1451Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 3.4, CGY 2.6CAR 2, CGY 3
Total goals6.05
Shots on goalCAR 31.9, CGY 24.3CAR 36, CGY 34
Win chanceCAR 63%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR A. Svechnikov2.710.81029%0
CAR S. Aho2.530.96132%0
CAR J. Blake2.420.78025%0
CAR L. Stankoven2.430.59024%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.330.81026%0
CGY M. Coronato2.330.59122%0
CGY M. Backlund2.120.47019%0
CGY J. Farabee1.920.54122%0
CAR S. Walker1.820.3507%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.630.59010%0
CGY M. Gridin1.620.47115%1
CAR B. Nadeau1.610.35015%0
CGY M. Frost1.530.47218%1
CAR J. Martinook1.520.36014%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.560.40119%1
CGY A. Suniev1.500.38014%0
CAR J. Slavin1.430.2916%0
CAR E. Robinson1.420.34114%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.430.2716%1
CAR K. Miller1.420.4308%0
CAR W. Carrier1.420.32012%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.310.2818%0
CGY S. Nemec1.310.3209%0
CGY R. Strome1.300.42014%0
CAR M. Reilly1.300.1903%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.210.2609%0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.140.29111%1
CGY A. Klapka0.940.23010%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov0.910.1805%0
CGY B. Othmann0.910.1507%0
CGY J. Middleton0.810.2115%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.710.2005%0
CGY K. Bahl0.730.2004%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.