Game Recap: CAR 5, CHI 2, October 10, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

CHI2

CAR beat CHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.88 expected goals to 2.33. CAR outshot CHI 39 to 26. J. Blake led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Aho had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. B. Bussi stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	3	1	5
CHI	0	1	1	2

1st 19:03CARM. Jankowski0.15 xG
2nd 2:09CARS. AhoSH0.17 xG
2nd 3:28CARJ. Blake0.30 xG
2nd 4:40CHIR. Kantserov0.22 xG
2nd 6:05CART. Hall0.15 xG
3rd 5:00CARJ. Martinook0.04 xG
3rd 14:14CHIO. Moore0.08 xG

Team Stats

CARCHI

39Shots on goal26

3.88Expected goals2.33

72Shot attempts48

325v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/2

12Hits13

11Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways24

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.88 xGCHI 2.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR39 on goal, 5 scored

CHI26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	15:54	2:17
J. Martinook	LW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	2	12:52	0:12
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	19:37	2:33
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+3	0	16:12	1:27
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:27	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:17	0:00
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:04	1:30
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	13:37	0:36
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:04	2:31
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:46	2:30
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	14:12	0:41
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	2	13:51	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	2	2	2	2	1	+2	0	16:19	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	21:49	2:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	22:36	1:43
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:52	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:57	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	17:17	2:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	26	24	2	.923	59:17	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Kantserov	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:48	2:13
O. Moore	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:57	1:39
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	12:17	1:47
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:46	1:44
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	-3	0	18:17	2:14
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:06	2:16
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:16	2:17
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	15:01	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:00	1:40
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:50	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:05	0:00
D. Toninato	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	9:38	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	2	17:07	0:09
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	25:40	2:15
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:43	1:46
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	2	18:12	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:04	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	39	34	5	.872	57:49	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:46A. Svechnikov13:16W. Carrier13:51

Line 2E. Robinson13:06J. Kotkaniemi12:37M. Jankowski10:22

Line 3L. Stankoven13:15J. Blake12:36T. Hall11:44

Line 4J. Staal11:01J. Martinook11:18N. Ehlers9:19

Pair 1S. Walker18:01K. Miller16:42

Pair 2J. Slavin16:11J. Chatfield17:28

Pair 3M. Reilly15:23S. Gostisbehere14:34

CHI

Line 1P. Kane13:52R. Greene15:02N. Lardis11:58

Line 2T. Bertuzzi12:48A. Frondell13:07R. Kantserov11:54

Line 3C. Smith13:06J. Greenway13:20O. Moore11:18

Line 4T. Teravainen10:20R. Donato9:47D. Toninato9:36

Pair 1A. Levshunov16:56B. Byram19:29

Pair 2S. Rinzel16:20W. Kaiser15:47

Pair 3I. Cole15:09A. Vlasic15:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CHI A. Frondell	2.5	+150	-170	1	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	-138	+120	2	Under
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+136	-165	2	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	+110	-140	2	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+118	-140	1	Under
CHI P. Kane	2.5	+160	-165	5	Over
CAR S. Aho	2.5	+100	-120	6	Over
CHI B. Byram	1.5	+150	-175	1	Under
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	+100	-130	1	Under
CAR J. Staal	1.5	-110	-120	1	Under
CAR K. Miller	1.5	+100	-130	4	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	-135	+110	2	Over
CAR S. Walker	1.5	-150	+115	1	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	-114	-105	1	Under
CAR T. Hall	1.5	-130	+100	4	Over

6 of 35 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+1600	-5000	0	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
CHI A. Vlasic	0.5	+2400	-5000	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
CHI C. Smith	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
CHI D. Toninato	0.5	+1200	-10000	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
CHI I. Cole	0.5	+2500	-5000	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+230	-285	1	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1200	-3500	0	Under
CHI J. Greenway	0.5	+1000	-3500	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+550	-700	1	Over
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
CAR J. Staal	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+600	-1400	1	Over
CAR M. Reilly	0.5	+2000	-10000	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
CHI N. Lardis	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+625	-1400	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+700	-750	0	Under
CHI R. Greene	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+170	-210	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+480	-900	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+300	-370	1	Over
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
CHI W. Kaiser	0.5	+1400	-5000	0	Under

4 of 14 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+185	-250	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+165	-210	1	Over
CAR J. Staal	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+255	-330	1	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+215	-250	1	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+135	-150	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+122	-150	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+225	-270	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+185	-245	0	Under

6 of 14 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-160	+140	0	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+145	-160	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-125	+105	2	Over
CAR J. Staal	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+180	-220	1	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-200	+180	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	-102	-120	0	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	-105	-125	1	Over

0 of 14 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+325	-450	Under
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+225	-275	Under
CHI B. Byram	0.5	+375	-600	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+270	-350	Under
CAR J. Staal	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+225	-275	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+220	-300	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+220	-215	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+275	-350	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+300	-450	Under
CAR T. Hall	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CHI S. Knight	26.5	-110	-110	34	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTaylor Hall CAR Faces CHI, his team until Jan 20251 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.5, CHI 2.4	CAR 5, CHI 2
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	CAR 31.8, CHI 21.2	CAR 39, CHI 26
Win chance	CAR 67%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	2	0.81	0	29%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	2	0.65	1	26%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	6	0.97	1	32%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.4	2	0.78	2	24%	1
CHI A. Frondell	2.3	1	0.73	0	21%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	1	0.84	1	27%	0
CHI P. Kane	2.3	5	0.86	0	25%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.1	4	0.65	1	21%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.9	1	0.37	0	9%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	1	0.71	0	28%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	2	0.70	0	14%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.7	1	0.39	2	15%	1
CHI R. Kantserov	1.6	3	0.51	1	21%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.6	1	0.46	0	19%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	1	0.35	0	7%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	3	0.31	0	8%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.4	2	0.43	0	19%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	4	0.49	1	10%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	4	0.33	0	13%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.4	2	0.22	2	4%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	0	0.32	1	14%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.3	0	0.36	0	15%	0
CHI B. Byram	1.3	1	0.48	0	12%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.2	0	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.2	3	0.37	1	16%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	0	0.31	1	12%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.1	2	0.29	0	3%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	3	0.35	1	16%	1
CHI J. Greenway	1.0	2	0.24	0	10%	0
CHI C. Smith	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
CHI O. Moore	0.9	2	0.31	1	10%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	0.8	0	0.40	0	14%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.8	1	0.19	1	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
CHI D. Toninato	0.6	0	0.18	0	7%	0
CHI I. Cole	0.6	1	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.