CAR beat DAL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.07 expected goals to 4.30. J. Kotkaniemi led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Walker had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. P. Kochetkov stopped 22 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 17:07CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.14 xG
- 3rd 10:11DALT. Harley0.49 xG
- 3rd 10:35CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.07 xGDAL 4.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:05 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:23 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:14 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 2:27 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:25 | 2:27 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 2:21 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:14 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:11 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:14 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 1:05 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:24 | 1:05 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 15:04 | 0:02 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:35 | 0:06 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:14 | 1:09 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:12 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:12 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:18 | 2:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 59:54 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 3:38 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 1:38 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 3:38 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 2:48 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:08 | 3:38 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:15 | 0:19 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:44 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:46 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:49 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:17 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:16 |
| M. Blümel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:32 | 4:24 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:21 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:19 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 58:01 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 2.7, DAL 3.1 | CAR 2, DAL 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.0, DAL 28.4 | CAR 19, DAL 23 |
| Win chance | DAL 57% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 0 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.94 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 2.0 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 1.8 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.6 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 6 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL M. Blümel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.