Game Recap: CAR 0, FLA 6, November 30, 2024

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Game Recap

CAR0

FinalSat, Nov 30, 2024Every game that night

FLA6

FLA beat CAR 6-0, with the chances close: 2.60 expected goals to 2.26. FLA outshot CAR 35 to 20. A. Barkov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Samoskevich had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Knight stopped 20 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	0	0	0
FLA	0	2	4	6

2nd 6:42FLAA. Ekblad0.01 xG
2nd 19:59FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.12 xG
3rd 8:19FLAS. Bennett0.19 xG
3rd 11:37FLAA. BarkovPP0.25 xG
3rd 11:48FLAA. Boqvist0.06 xG
3rd 13:01FLAE. RodriguesPP0.05 xG

Team Stats

CARFLA

20Shots on goal35

2.26Expected goals2.60

50Shot attempts52

145v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play3/6

23Hits25

8Blocked shots15

16Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways14

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.26 xGFLA 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR19 on goal, 0 scored

FLA34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	3	3	0	-2	0	19:31	3:11
S. Jarvis	RW	0	2	0	-1	0	17:26	3:11
M. Necas	C	5	2	0	-1	2	17:04	3:11
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	1	0	0	15:15	0:13
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	3	0	0	4	15:12	3:11
J. Staal	C	1	3	0	0	0	14:29	0:13
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	14:18	0:00
J. Drury	C	1	1	1	0	0	14:14	0:36
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	-2	4	12:31	0:36
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	0	0	12:06	0:36
J. Blake	RW	1	0	0	-1	0	11:40	0:36
W. Carrier	LW	0	4	1	-1	0	10:10	0:13
B. Burns	D	0	0	1	-1	0	20:24	0:36
J. Chatfield	D	2	0	0	0	0	20:00	0:00
J. Slavin	D	1	1	1	-1	0	19:52	0:18
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	0	2	-2	2	18:46	3:06
D. Orlov	D	1	3	0	0	2	18:39	0:00
S. Walker	D	2	1	1	-2	2	18:31	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Martin	28	23	5	.821	51:48	Loss
Y. Perets	7	6	1	.857	8:12

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Barkov	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	18:22	3:32
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	2	16:39	4:38
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	18:08	3:52
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	2	16:29	3:20
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:18	2:52
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	14:28	3:36
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	14:24	0:39
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:23	3:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	13:44	0:40
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	3	7	0	+1	0	9:59	0:21
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:01	0:39
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	10:52	0:21
A. Ekblad	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	2	23:19	1:50
N. Schmidt	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	18:59	3:18
A. Boqvist	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	13:14	4:04
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	22:55	1:14
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	21:52	1:03
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:54	0:21

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	20	20	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownShayne Gostisbehere CAR Plays near home (born in Pembroke Pines)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.1, FLA 2.9	CAR 0, FLA 6
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	CAR 30.2, FLA 27.3	CAR 20, FLA 35
Win chance	CAR 54%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.8	1	0.96	2	29%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.6	1	0.75	1	30%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	1	0.74	0	26%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.5	5	0.81	0	26%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	3	0.92	1	37%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	4	0.65	1	25%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.3	3	0.91	0	32%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.2	2	0.97	2	27%	1
CAR B. Burns	2.1	0	0.45	0	10%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.0	0	0.68	0	26%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.8	3	0.49	1	18%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	1	0.58	0	11%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.6	0	0.49	1	16%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.6	1	0.36	0	12%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	2	0.40	0	10%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	0	0.41	0	16%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.41	0	8%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.5	0	0.45	0	17%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.37	0	6%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	4	0.40	1	10%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.4	2	0.21	0	6%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.4	1	0.33	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	1	0.33	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	0	0.27	0	15%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	2	0.28	0	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.3	0	0.32	0	12%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.1	4	0.29	1	12%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.0	0	0.32	1	12%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.0	1	0.30	0	12%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.26	0	12%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	0.8	0	0.22	1	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	3	0.18	1	8%	0
FLA A. Boqvist	0.8	3	0.23	1	6%	1
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	2	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.7	2	0.17	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.