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Game Recap
CAR3
FLA1
CAR beat FLA 3-1, with the chances close: 3.26 expected goals to 3.03. CAR outshot FLA 40 to 26. J. Slavin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Burns had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. P. Kochetkov stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 0:35CARB. Burns0.01 xG
- 2nd 2:17FLAA. Lundell0.19 xG
- 3rd 12:30CARJ. Slavin0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:32CARM. NecasEN0.96 xG
Team Stats
CARFLA
40Shots on goal26
3.26Expected goals3.03
64Shot attempts64
365v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/2
34Hits28
16Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways16
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.26 xGFLA 3.03 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:08 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:45 |
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:15 | 2:10 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 3:06 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 3:07 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:50 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 2:46 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 | 0:52 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:15 | 2:56 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:44 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:15 | 2:56 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:39 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:27 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:03 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:11 | 2:08 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:53 | 2:22 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:10 | 2:10 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:57 | 1:47 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:41 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 2:04 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:01 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:03 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 24:06 | 1:45 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:04 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:03 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:35 | 2:03 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 39 | 37 | 2 | .949 | 57:45 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, FLA 3.1 | CAR 3, FLA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.3, FLA 28.6 | CAR 40, FLA 26 |
| Win chance | CAR 50% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.4 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 2 | 0.96 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.3 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.3 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 7 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR T. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.3 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.