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Game Recap
CAR0
MTL4
MTL beat CAR 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.16 expected goals to 2.90. P. Laine led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Montembeault stopped 20 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MTL | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 8:05MTLJ. Slafkovský0.06 xG
- 1st 17:37MTLP. Laine0.05 xG
- 2nd 10:04MTLN. SuzukiPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 10:22MTLL. HutsonPP0.02 xG
Team Stats
CARMTL
20Shots on goal18
2.90Expected goals2.16
68Shot attempts39
155v5 shots on goal14
0/3Power play2/5
21Hits27
11Blocked shots21
10Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways21
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.90 xGMTL 2.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:10 | 5:13 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:35 | 4:29 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:05 | 1:31 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 5:04 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 4:56 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:35 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:59 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:49 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:05 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:08 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:12 | 4:44 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 17:17 | 0:16 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:30 | 1:11 |
| R. Stillman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 59:48 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 4:45 |
| P. Laine | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 4:29 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 4:46 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 4:07 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:14 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:10 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:15 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:55 | 1:47 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:01 |
| L. Hutson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 4:32 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:18 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:38 | 1:26 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 20 | 20 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:51 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, MTL 2.6 | CAR 0, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.1, MTL 24.6 | CAR 20, MTL 18 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR M. Rantanen | 2.9 | 3 | 1.18 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.8 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 1.9 | 3 | 0.57 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| MTL O. Beck | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR R. Stillman | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.