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Game Recap
CAR2
MTL4
MTL beat CAR 4-2, with the chances close: 2.77 expected goals to 3.05. K. Guhle led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Montembeault stopped 27 of 29.
Team Stats
CARMTL
29Shots on goal22
3.05Expected goals2.77
66Shot attempts46
245v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/3
34Hits27
14Blocked shots20
4Penalty minutes2
22Giveaways27
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.05 xGMTL 2.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:13 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 1:15 |
| T. Jost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:45 |
| B. Nadeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:01 | 1:15 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:45 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:45 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:02 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Brind'Amour | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:45 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:18 | 1:15 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 0:45 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| D. Fensore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:15 |
| R. Stillman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 59:44 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 21:40 | 5:55 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:07 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 15:57 | 3:08 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:29 | 3:11 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:11 | 2:45 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:05 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 2:48 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:03 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 3:09 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 1:50 |
| K. Guhle | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:09 | 0:59 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 3:03 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 26:07 | 2:57 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.4, MTL 2.8 | CAR 2, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.2, MTL 23.5 | CAR 29, MTL 22 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 3 | 0.97 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Morrow | 1.7 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 2 | 6% | 2 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CAR R. Stillman | 0.4 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.