Game Recap: CAR 2, NJD 4, December 27, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CAR2

FinalFri, Dec 27, 2024Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat CAR 4-2, with the chances close: 3.84 expected goals to 3.89. CAR outshot NJD 31 to 23. B. Burns led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Walker had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Markstrom stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	1	0	2
NJD	2	2	0	4

1st 10:03CARE. Robinson0.82 xG
1st 16:12NJDO. Palat0.12 xG
1st 16:54NJDN. Hischier0.05 xG
2nd 0:22CARB. Burns0.12 xG
2nd 4:15NJDL. Hughes0.17 xG
2nd 8:47NJDD. Mercer0.55 xG

Team Stats

CARNJD

31Shots on goal23

3.89Expected goals3.84

70Shot attempts48

285v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/0

24Hits20

11Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways11

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.89 xGNJD 3.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR30 on goal, 2 scored

NJD22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	16:21	1:48
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	-2	0	16:11	1:55
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	13:04	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:38	1:59
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	17:24	2:11
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	16:57	2:12
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:56	1:49
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:55	1:44
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	14:25	0:47
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	13:54	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:47	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:40	0:00
B. Burns	D	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	0	21:38	2:18
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-3	0	21:43	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	21:28	0:34
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:54	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	18:06	1:01
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:51	1:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	23	19	4	.826	57:08	Loss
D. Tokarski	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	0	3	0	0	20:25	0:00
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:56	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+2	0	16:56	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:46	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	15:39	0:00
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+2	0	13:17	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	16:55	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:08	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:58	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:37	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:21	0:00
L. Hughes	D	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	18:58	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	22:56	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	4	0	-1	0	20:44	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	20:26	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	4	19:39	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	17:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStefan Noesen NJD Faces CAR, his team until May 20241 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.1, NJD 3.1	CAR 2, NJD 4
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	CAR 27.9, NJD 27.9	CAR 31, NJD 23
Win chance	CAR 50%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.3	4	1.07	1	34%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.6	1	0.68	0	29%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.3	1	0.76	0	25%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	3	0.71	0	26%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	3	0.85	1	28%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.2	0	0.90	0	32%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	1	0.91	1	26%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.0	2	0.50	0	12%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.0	2	0.68	0	27%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.9	4	0.57	1	23%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.8	3	0.40	2	9%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	0	0.58	0	11%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	1	0.40	0	16%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.5	1	0.35	0	15%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.4	1	0.46	1	21%	1
CAR J. Roslovic	1.4	3	0.44	1	17%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	1	0.37	0	15%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.4	0	0.40	0	8%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.28	0	8%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.3	1	0.46	2	7%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.3	4	0.21	0	6%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.3	2	0.35	0	15%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.3	2	0.33	0	6%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	0	0.21	1	5%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	3	0.28	0	15%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	2	0.32	0	14%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.1	3	0.25	1	14%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	2	0.40	1	15%	1
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	2	0.32	1	13%	1
CAR T. Jost	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	1	0.24	0	11%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.8	0	0.27	0	11%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	0	0.21	1	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	0	0.16	1	3%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	0	0.17	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	0	0.22	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.