NJD beat CAR 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.07 expected goals to 2.87. NJD outshot CAR 37 to 27. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Nemec had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Markstrom stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | 2OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 16:11NJDN. Hischier0.18 xG
- 3rd 1:18NJDD. Mercer0.02 xG
- 3rd 6:11CARS. JarvisPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 12:20CARS. AhoPP0.29 xG
- 2OT 2:36NJDS. Nemec0.10 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.87 xGNJD 5.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:34 | 4:14 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 26:21 | 4:13 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 3:39 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:19 | 3:35 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:50 | 0:16 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 1:39 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:43 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:47 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:49 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:32 | 3:33 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 33:23 | 0:02 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 29:55 | 1:38 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27:46 | 0:07 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 26:19 | 0:15 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 82:36 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 30:39 | 7:04 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 30:28 | 6:45 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 29:20 | 7:45 |
| D. Mercer | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:35 | 3:45 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:42 | 3:05 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 6:13 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:15 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:02 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 2:53 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 3:39 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 36:24 | 0:10 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | +2 | 2 | 32:30 | 0:03 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 31:16 | 6:21 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 27:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 6:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 82:36 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, NJD 2.8 | CAR 2, NJD 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.4, NJD 24.5 | CAR 27, NJD 37 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 3 | 0.99 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.4 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.0 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 5 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.8 | 5 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.