Game Recap: CAR 5, NJD 2, April 27, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR5

FinalSun, Apr 27, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

NJD2

CAR beat NJD 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 1.83. A. Svechnikov scored three for CAR. A. Svechnikov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. F. Andersen stopped 6 of 7.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	2	1	2	5
NJD	0	2	0	2

1st 0:52CARA. Svechnikov0.02 xG
1st 9:47CARJ. Slavin0.02 xG
2nd 0:42CARA. SvechnikovPP0.06 xG
2nd 2:45NJDN. Hischier0.04 xG
2nd 7:34NJDT. Meier0.02 xG
3rd 14:14CARB. Burns0.04 xG
3rd 16:43CARA. SvechnikovEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

CARNJD

29Shots on goal22

3.40Expected goals1.83

69Shot attempts55

225v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play0/2

35Hits31

17Blocked shots21

14Penalty minutes16

9Giveaways15

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.40 xGNJD 1.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR27 on goal, 5 scored

NJD21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	3	0	3	6	5	0	+2	0	15:13	3:56
S. Aho	C	0	2	2	0	3	1	+3	0	18:11	3:56
J. Blake	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	17:19	3:54
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	17:15	3:53
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	16:03	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:47	1:19
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:43	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:26	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:18	1:20
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	12:33	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10	12:28	1:17
B. Burns	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	19:11	1:12
J. Slavin	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	+2	0	20:25	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	2	22:51	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	21:45	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:47	4:01
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	15:45	1:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	7	6	1	.857	24:19	Win
P. Kochetkov	15	14	1	.933	35:41

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	3	3	3	0	0	18:38	2:48
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	19:46	2:38
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	15:22	1:07
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	5	2	1	-2	0	19:24	3:01
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	0	18:02	1:18
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	16:05	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:08	0:55
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	10	13:52	2:38
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:26	0:02
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:28	1:17
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:13	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:01	0:04
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	24:26	0:12
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-3	4	22:31	2:27
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	22:28	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-2	2	19:56	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:51	1:33
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	8:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	28	24	4	.857	59:24	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStefan Noesen NJD Faces CAR, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, NJD 2.8	CAR 5, NJD 2
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	CAR 29.2, NJD 25.1	CAR 29, NJD 22
Win chance	CAR 56%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.4	3	0.77	2	34%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	5	1.07	0	28%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	2	0.79	1	31%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	3	0.96	1	33%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	3	0.59	0	13%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	0	0.87	2	32%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	2	0.46	0	18%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.2	6	0.64	3	24%	3
CAR J. Blake	2.1	2	0.49	2	21%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	0	0.52	0	22%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.0	1	0.51	0	24%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	2	0.23	0	7%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	1	0.55	0	21%	0
CAR B. Burns	1.9	2	0.37	2	9%	1
NJD E. Haula	1.8	3	0.42	0	19%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.7	0	0.39	0	9%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	1	0.57	0	10%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	2	0.38	1	7%	1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	0	0.38	0	15%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.5	0	0.34	0	13%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.5	4	0.35	0	14%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.40	0	15%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	0	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.26	0	9%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	1	0.28	0	15%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	0	0.26	0	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	0	0.39	1	16%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.2	2	0.32	0	17%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.26	0	14%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.6	2	0.18	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.