Game Recap: CAR 3, NJD 1, January 4, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR3

FinalSun, Jan 4, 2026Every game that night

NJD1

CAR beat NJD 3-1, with the chances close: 3.04 expected goals to 2.46. T. Hall led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Hischier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. B. Bussi stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	1	1	3
NJD	1	0	0	1

1st 0:51CARN. Ehlers0.22 xG
1st 7:34NJDD. Mercer0.14 xG
2nd 7:47CART. Hall0.07 xG
3rd 12:16CARL. Stankoven0.02 xG

Team Stats

CARNJD

29Shots on goal29

3.04Expected goals2.46

49Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play0/5

16Hits22

18Blocked shots9

10Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways12

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.04 xGNJD 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR28 on goal, 3 scored

NJD29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hall	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	15:07	2:39
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:20	4:31
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	4	12:58	2:26
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	21:08	3:32
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	19:56	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	17:11	0:50
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	15:34	3:14
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:57	3:31
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	11:26	0:09
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:48	0:09
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	8:24	0:30
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	1	4	+1	2	23:55	2:29
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	23:22	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	21:39	3:43
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:26	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:23	2:17
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	12:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	2	18:58	3:07
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	15:49	3:13
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	6	3	0	-1	0	25:16	6:56
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	24:55	7:32
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	23:25	6:48
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	20:36	5:13
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:51	2:02
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:27	4:36
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:13	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	2	9:10	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:47	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:52	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:04	0:07
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	25:27	4:06
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	22:43	5:38
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	17:46	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:58	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	29	27	3	.931	55:44	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho12:26A. Svechnikov11:26N. Ehlers11:15

Line 2J. Staal10:45J. Martinook13:16W. Carrier11:10

Line 3T. Hall12:16J. Blake11:09L. Stankoven10:20

Line 4E. Robinson6:50N. Philp8:30M. Jankowski5:22

Pair 1S. Gostisbehere16:41J. Chatfield16:23

Pair 2S. Walker15:10K. Miller15:39

Pair 3A. Nikishin10:57J. Nystrom9:05

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier14:01J. Hughes14:36J. Bratt12:42

Line 2T. Meier13:27A. Gritsyuk11:50D. Mercer12:22

Line 3C. Brown9:37C. Glass9:43O. Palat8:07

Line 4S. Noesen6:51J. Lammikko5:52L. Glendening5:58

Pair 1D. Hamilton18:03J. Siegenthaler16:33

Pair 2B. Pesce14:17L. Hughes14:36

Pair 3B. Dillon10:18C. White9:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamStefan Noesen NJD Faces CAR, his team until May 20240 SOG
BirthdayNico Hischier NJD Turns 27 that day6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.1, NJD 2.8	CAR 3, NJD 1
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	CAR 30.0, NJD 25.9	CAR 29, NJD 29
Win chance	CAR 54%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.5	5	1.14	0	36%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.8	3	0.66	0	29%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	2	0.71	0	26%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	3	0.74	1	26%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	6	0.86	0	30%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.85	0	31%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	3	0.91	0	25%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.2	3	0.26	0	8%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.1	3	0.42	0	11%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	2	0.53	0	22%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	4	0.40	1	16%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.9	3	0.42	1	17%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	2	0.63	0	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	2	0.47	1	21%	1
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	0	0.54	0	9%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	4	0.46	2	18%	1
NJD C. Glass	1.5	0	0.35	0	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	0	0.35	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.5	1	0.33	0	15%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	2	0.46	0	17%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.35	0	7%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.22	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	0	0.38	0	16%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.3	0	0.38	0	16%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	1	0.35	0	14%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	1	0.22	0	12%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.2	0	0.26	0	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.1	1	0.22	0	2%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.25	0	13%	0
CAR N. Philp	0.9	1	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	0	0.14	1	3%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.12	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.6	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.5	1	0.13	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.