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Game Recap
CAR4
NJD1
CAR beat NJD 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.81 expected goals to 2.86. A. Svechnikov scored three for CAR. J. Blake had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. F. Andersen stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| NJD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 13:12CARA. Svechnikov0.17 xG
- 2nd 14:09CARA. Svechnikov0.10 xG
- 3rd 4:27NJDT. MeierPP0.02 xG
- 3rd 8:33CARJ. Blake0.22 xG
- 3rd 15:52CARA. Svechnikov0.20 xG
Team Stats
CARNJD
35Shots on goal30
3.81Expected goals2.86
68Shot attempts53
315v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play1/4
20Hits22
12Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes2
9Giveaways18
9Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.81 xGNJD 2.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:17 | 1:06 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:53 | 1:07 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:04 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:29 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:56 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:30 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:54 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:54 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 24:11 | 0:42 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:18 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 59:52 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:07 | 4:36 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 3:05 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:12 | 4:30 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 3:27 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:32 | 2:45 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:26 | 2:54 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:21 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:29 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:29 | 3:31 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:47 | 0:04 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Lammikko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:05 | 3:53 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 3:53 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:02 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:17 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:08 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 35 | 31 | 4 | .886 | 59:57 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1S. Aho15:13A. Svechnikov13:46S. Jarvis13:26
Line 2J. Martinook13:53N. Ehlers13:41J. Staal13:11
Line 3L. Stankoven13:45J. Blake13:28T. Hall12:24
Line 4E. Robinson10:00J. Kotkaniemi9:31M. Jankowski9:07
Pair 2J. Slavin14:41J. Chatfield15:57
Pair 3A. Nikishin16:58J. Nystrom12:10
NJD
Line 1J. Bratt14:36J. Hughes16:23E. Dadonov8:58
Line 2T. Meier16:24D. Mercer15:04N. Hischier16:04
Line 3C. Brown14:31A. Gritsyuk12:32C. Glass13:19
Line 4L. Glendening8:00P. Cotter9:42J. Lammikko6:13
Pair 1J. Siegenthaler18:40J. Kovacevic18:12
Pair 3B. Dillon14:11D. Hamilton16:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, NJD 3.0 | CAR 4, NJD 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.5, NJD 26.1 | CAR 35, NJD 30 |
| Win chance | CAR 52% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 3 | 1.19 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 7 | 0.67 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 0 | 0.74 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.4 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 4 | 0.68 | 3 | 25% | 3 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.2 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 0 | 0.80 | 3 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.6 | 6 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.3 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD E. Dadonov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Lammikko | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD L. Glendening | 0.5 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.