Game Recap: CAR 2, NYI 1, April 14, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR2

FinalTue, Apr 14, 2026Every game that night

NYI1

CAR beat NYI 2-1, with the chances close: 2.31 expected goals to 2.45. NYI outshot CAR 30 to 21. N. Ehlers had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. B. Bussi stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	0	1	2
NYI	0	1	0	1

1st 3:05CARN. Ehlers0.11 xG
2nd 13:14NYIB. Horvat0.26 xG
3rd 14:38CARM. Jankowski0.14 xG

Team Stats

CARNYI

21Shots on goal30

2.31Expected goals2.45

42Shot attempts58

205v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play0/2

11Hits10

17Blocked shots7

4Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways20

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.31 xGNYI 2.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR21 on goal, 2 scored

NYI29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	1	1	3	+1	0	17:34	1:10
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	15:02	1:13
F. Unger Sorum	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	14:35	0:47
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	12:51	1:15
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:44	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:29	0:45
B. Nadeau	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:40	0:45
S. Brind'Amour	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:41	0:50
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	2	14:07	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	12:58	1:15
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:28	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:40	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	23:40	1:10
J. Nystrom	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:51	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	22:10	0:00
C. Legault	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:01	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:17	0:50
R. Seeley	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:18	2:29
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:55	2:24
V. Eklund	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:30	2:29
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	19:09	2:26
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:37	1:31
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	16:31	1:35
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	15:55	1:35
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:47	1:32
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:56	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:25	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
L. Foudy	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:17	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	24:13	2:58
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:38	1:01
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:45	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	17:30	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:33	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	21	19	2	.905	56:29	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Kotkaniemi15:03F. Sorum13:46N. Ehlers12:45

Line 2B. Nadeau14:39J. Blake11:43L. Stankoven11:36

Line 3M. Jankowski12:35E. Robinson12:13W. Carrier10:40

Line 4J. Martinook14:27S. Brind'Amour11:09N. Deslauriers10:42

Pair 1M. Reilly19:03C. Legault18:06

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere18:27A. Nikishin19:05

Pair 3R. Seeley13:47J. Nystrom12:39

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat13:27S. Holmstrom14:12V. Eklund12:15

Line 2E. Heineman14:15J. Pageau13:14A. Lee11:57

Line 3B. Schenn12:58M. Barzal14:00C. Ritchie12:23

Line 4C. Cizikas11:33L. Foudy11:17O. Palat11:48

Pair 1A. Pelech16:44M. Schaefer16:53

Pair 2S. Mayfield16:33C. Soucy14:34

Pair 3T. DeAngelo18:37I. George15:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTony DeAngelo NYI Faces CAR, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.1, NYI 2.9	CAR 2, NYI 1
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	CAR 29.5, NYI 25.4	CAR 21, NYI 30
Win chance	CAR 53%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	2	0.84	1	34%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	5	0.73	0	19%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.2	5	0.71	1	24%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	3	0.95	1	24%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.2	3	0.55	0	24%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	2	0.51	1	21%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	4	0.55	0	21%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	0	0.59	0	10%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.6	2	0.36	0	20%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.6	1	0.66	0	23%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.6	1	0.44	0	8%	0
CAR B. Nadeau	1.5	0	0.31	0	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	0	0.38	1	9%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	2	0.59	0	21%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.37	0	14%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	1	0.56	0	22%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	3	0.28	0	13%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.2	1	0.17	0	3%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.52	0	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.2	3	0.24	0	4%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.0	1	0.21	0	10%	0
CAR S. Brind'Amour	1.0	1	0.29	0	15%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.27	1	13%	1
CAR C. Legault	0.9	1	0.17	0	5%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	0.8	0	0.18	1	3%	0
NYI O. Palat	0.8	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYI L. Foudy	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.7	0	0.10	0	5%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.6	2	0.16	0	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NYI I. George	0.5	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.