Game Recap: CAR 4, NYR 0, January 28, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR4

FinalTue, Jan 28, 2025Every game that night

NYR0

CAR beat NYR 4-0, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.77. A. Svechnikov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). F. Andersen stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	1	2	4
NYR	0	0	0	0

1st 0:56CARA. Svechnikov0.12 xG
2nd 19:29CARA. Svechnikov0.15 xG
3rd 1:04CARS. Aho0.19 xG
3rd 2:30CARS. Jarvis0.24 xG

Team Stats

CARNYR

26Shots on goal22

2.64Expected goals2.77

47Shot attempts58

235v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play0/3

11Hits21

15Blocked shots7

11Penalty minutes9

17Giveaways15

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.64 xGNYR 2.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR26 on goal, 4 scored

NYR21 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	2	1	3	4	1	0	+3	0	17:51	2:19
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	2	21:33	2:09
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:42	2:07
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	18:18	1:53
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:57	1:03
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	2	17:04	2:57
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	2	14:32	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:11	1:51
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	14:29	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
J. Jaaska	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:34	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	20:37	1:35
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:06	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	18:37	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:14	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	17:12	1:41
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	16:04	2:25
R. Stillman	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	7:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	22	22	0	1.000	60:00	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	2	0	0	-3	0	21:39	4:44
M. Zibanejad	C	4	1	0	-1	0	18:11	4:45
V. Trocheck	C	1	1	0	-2	0	17:34	4:28
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	-1	0	17:31	1:32
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	-1	0	17:15	1:16
C. Kreider	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	16:46	4:49
A. Lafrenière	LW	2	0	0	-3	2	14:51	1:15
W. Cuylle	LW	1	4	0	0	0	14:51	0:53
S. Carrick	C	0	1	0	0	5	11:42	0:00
A. Kaliyev	RW	2	0	0	0	0	11:14	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	1	2	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	2	1	0	0	9:49	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	3	0	-1	0	23:42	1:33
A. Fox	D	3	0	2	-3	0	21:30	4:27
W. Borgen	D	0	1	2	-1	0	19:29	0:18
U. Vaakanainen	D	1	2	0	0	0	16:55	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	2	1	0	-2	2	16:50	0:00
B. Schneider	D	1	2	2	-1	0	15:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	26	22	4	.846	60:00	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamK'Andre Miller CAR Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.0, NYR 2.8	CAR 4, NYR 0
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	CAR 32.2, NYR 27.0	CAR 26, NYR 22
Win chance	CAR 52%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR M. Rantanen	3.0	3	1.13	1	36%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	2	1.10	0	32%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.7	2	0.94	1	31%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	4	0.70	3	25%	2
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	2	0.74	1	27%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	2	0.63	0	24%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	1	0.74	0	25%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.2	2	0.61	0	32%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.2	2	0.42	0	9%	0
NYR F. Chytil	2.1	0	0.49	0	19%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.0	4	0.69	0	23%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	1	0.36	1	19%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.8	2	0.44	1	16%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	1	0.40	0	18%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.7	0	0.52	0	18%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	0	0.46	1	17%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	1	0.43	0	15%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.6	2	0.29	0	13%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.6	0	0.39	0	7%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	1	0.48	0	8%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.6	0	0.39	1	15%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.5	3	0.20	0	5%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.38	0	6%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	3	0.69	0	10%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.25	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	2	0.34	0	13%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
CAR J. Jaaska	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.22	0	11%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.7	2	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	1	0.17	0	1%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
CAR R. Stillman	0.6	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.