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Game Recap
CAR3
NYR0
CAR beat NYR 3-0, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.18. S. Walker led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Miller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. P. Kochetkov stopped 26 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team Stats
CARNYR
32Shots on goal26
2.92Expected goals2.18
66Shot attempts56
245v5 shots on goal15
1/3Power play0/3
13Hits22
16Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways8
6Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.92 xGNYR 2.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:30 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 2:45 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 2:28 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:45 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 1:44 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 2:46 |
| B. Nadeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:47 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:57 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:16 | 2:41 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:42 | 2:02 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Legault | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 26 | 26 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:20 | 4:36 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:27 | 4:34 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 4:19 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:43 | 1:36 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:53 | 2:59 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 2:24 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:20 | 0:03 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:43 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 1:25 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:30 | 4:25 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:28 | 0:17 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:04 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:02 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:46 | 1:33 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 58:44 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1J. Staal13:14S. Jarvis12:30J. Martinook12:31
Line 2N. Ehlers12:05L. Stankoven13:22J. Blake12:31
Line 3M. Jankowski10:47J. Kotkaniemi12:44B. Nadeau12:14
Line 4T. Hall10:37S. Aho11:01A. Svechnikov11:06
Pair 1S. Walker17:50A. Nikishin18:00
Pair 2J. Chatfield15:54J. Nystrom15:35
Pair 3M. Reilly14:27C. Legault14:47
NYR
Line 1M. Zibanejad13:28J. Miller13:02A. Panarin13:32
Line 2S. Carrick14:06J. Brodzinski11:42A. Edstrom10:25
Line 3N. Laba13:35A. Lafrenière10:46W. Cuylle13:19
Line 4C. Sheary11:50J. Parssinen9:51T. Raddysh9:35
Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:01A. Fox19:35
Pair 3M. Robertson14:07B. Schneider13:38
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.0, NYR 3.0 | CAR 3, NYR 0 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.5, NYR 26.2 | CAR 32, NYR 26 |
| Win chance | NYR 50% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 2 | 1.15 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.8 | 6 | 0.78 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.3 | 6 | 1.06 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.2 | 3 | 0.28 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.0 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR B. Nadeau | 1.7 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR C. Legault | 1.1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.