Game Recap: CAR 2, OTT 1, April 23, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR2

FinalThu, Apr 23, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

OTT1

CAR beat OTT 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.41. T. Hall led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). F. Andersen stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	1	1	0	2
OTT	0	1	0	1

1st 5:13CARL. Stankoven0.15 xG
2nd 16:06OTTD. Batherson0.16 xG
2nd 17:29CARJ. Blake0.13 xG

Team Stats

CAROTT

27Shots on goal22

3.59Expected goals2.41

61Shot attempts48

225v5 shots on goal17

0/4Power play0/5

30Hits45

17Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways15

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.59 xGOTT 2.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR26 on goal, 2 scored

OTT21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Hall	LW	0	2	2	3	2	1	+2	2	14:54	3:55
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:01	3:55
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+2	0	15:10	3:55
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	7:33	0:00
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	20:06	4:06
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	19:58	3:54
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:36	4:02
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:23	1:13
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	17:06	5:47
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	14:37	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:38	0:57
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	7:47	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	20:11	0:14
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	22:33	0:02
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	19:58	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	6	3	+1	0	18:49	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:43	4:08
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:57	3:52

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	1	4	0	-1	2	19:40	6:03
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	7:32	0:06
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	23:57	5:58
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	19:27	5:40
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:44	5:57
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	18:08	3:11
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	4	5	1	0	0	16:16	3:01
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	2	15:29	0:06
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	15:04	0:06
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:40	1:58
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8:28	1:40
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:32	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	29:41	5:09
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	20:29	0:55
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	19:21	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	18:13	0:06
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:19	2:44
C. Crotty	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	8:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	27	25	2	.926	58:01	Loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho11:51S. Jarvis12:16A. Svechnikov12:26

Line 2L. Stankoven11:15J. Blake11:53T. Hall10:59

Line 3J. Staal11:38J. Martinook11:19N. Ehlers10:02

Line 4W. Carrier7:47M. Jankowski6:49E. Robinson6:18

Pair 1K. Miller16:28S. Walker14:52

Pair 2J. Slavin15:26J. Chatfield14:11

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:35A. Nikishin10:20

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson12:11T. Stützle13:21B. Tkachuk11:48

Line 2M. Amadio12:32S. Pinto10:36W. Foegele11:42

Line 3D. Cozens11:15R. Greig10:35C. Giroux10:10

Line 4L. Eller6:23F. Zetterlund6:48N. Cousins7:26

Pair 1T. Chabot17:50J. Spence19:22

Pair 2N. Matinpalo15:19J. Sanderson7:50

Pair 3C. Crotty8:32T. Kleven13:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, OTT 3.1	CAR 2, OTT 1
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	CAR 28.2, OTT 26.4	CAR 27, OTT 22
Win chance	CAR 52%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	2	0.84	0	31%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	2	0.75	0	29%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	4	0.69	0	25%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	1	0.79	0	27%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	2	0.70	0	26%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	0	0.85	0	30%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	1	0.98	0	29%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	4	0.56	1	22%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.64	0	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.1	3	0.36	0	10%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	1	0.79	1	28%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.1	3	0.60	1	22%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	1	0.66	0	11%	0
CAR T. Hall	2.0	3	0.63	2	22%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	3	0.58	0	12%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	0	0.65	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	3	0.48	0	18%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	0	0.58	0	11%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.7	1	0.38	0	19%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	0	0.49	0	20%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	2	0.32	0	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	2	0.44	0	17%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.6	0	0.47	0	8%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	0	0.43	1	9%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	1	0.36	0	15%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	0	0.40	0	11%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	2	0.24	0	7%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.48	0	21%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.28	1	13%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	0	0.24	0	4%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	0	0.30	1	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	1	0.30	0	15%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	2	0.22	0	9%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
OTT C. Crotty	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.