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Game Recap
CAR4
OTT2
CAR beat OTT 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.12 expected goals to 3.28. S. Aho led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Giroux had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. F. Andersen stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 15:15CART. Hall0.20 xG
- 2nd 17:08OTTD. BathersonPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 9:10CARL. StankovenPP0.40 xG
- 3rd 17:38CARS. AhoEN0.66 xG
- 3rd 18:11OTTD. Cozens0.12 xG
- 3rd 18:45CARS. AhoEN0.49 xG
Team Stats
CAROTT
30Shots on goal27
5.12Expected goals3.28
73Shot attempts52
175v5 shots on goal15
1/5Power play1/9
33Hits37
13Blocked shots21
20Penalty minutes14
11Giveaways18
6Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 5.12 xGOTT 3.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:27 | 5:37 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 5:17 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:54 | 2:28 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 2:07 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:48 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 6:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:17 | 4:28 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 3:57 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 16:15 | 4:31 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:51 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:16 | 2:08 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 18:40 | 0:51 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 5:23 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:16 | 0:15 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 59:49 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:35 | 9:09 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:57 | 11:21 |
| D. Cozens | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:52 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 9:32 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:37 | 8:09 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:50 | 3:55 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 6:19 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:05 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 1:08 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:32 | 0:06 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:18 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:13 |
| C. Yakemchuk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:34 | 8:08 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 27:17 | 5:23 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:14 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:01 | 0:11 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 58:01 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven11:47J. Blake12:13T. Hall10:52
Line 2A. Svechnikov11:09S. Jarvis11:15S. Aho10:10
Line 3J. Martinook8:44W. Carrier8:39J. Staal7:38
Line 4M. Jankowski6:48E. Robinson4:42N. Deslauriers3:09
Pair 1J. Slavin14:59J. Chatfield13:53
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:45A. Nikishin4:29
OTT
Line 1B. Tkachuk10:29D. Cozens12:11R. Greig10:46
Line 2D. Batherson9:14T. Stützle10:20W. Foegele6:53
Line 4N. Cousins7:07F. Zetterlund8:29L. Eller4:46
Pair 1T. Kleven13:01N. Matinpalo10:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, OTT 3.0 | CAR 4, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 28.2, OTT 26.2 | CAR 30, OTT 27 |
| Win chance | CAR 52% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.5 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 5 | 0.84 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 6 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.