Game Recap: CAR 4, PHI 3 (SO), December 13, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR4

Final/SOSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night

PHI3

CAR beat PHI 4-3 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.55 expected goals to 2.06. T. Zegras led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 15 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CAR	0	2	1	1	4
PHI	2	0	1	0	3

1st 10:04PHIB. Brink0.12 xG
1st 17:34PHIT. Zegras0.29 xG
2nd 9:11CARN. Ehlers0.10 xG
2nd 14:12CARA. Nikishin0.02 xG
3rd 12:26CARS. Jarvis0.44 xG
3rd 12:49PHIC. Grundstrom0.12 xG

Team Stats

CARPHI

21Shots on goal18

3.55Expected goals2.06

67Shot attempts27

165v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play0/0

19Hits28

3Blocked shots21

0Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways18

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.55 xGPHI 2.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR21 on goal, 3 scored

PHI15 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	18:14	0:49
S. Jarvis	C	1	0	1	3	5	1	0	17:24	3:11
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	17:11	3:08
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	11:48	0:52
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	21:25	3:39
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:51	3:09
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	18:16	0:51
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	18:06	0:21
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	16:39	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	15:54	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:18	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:54	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	25:58	2:32
J. Nystrom	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	13:49	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:26	1:28
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	23:45	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	22:53	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	18	15	3	.833	64:57	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	2	18:24	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:25	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	14:36	0:00
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	13:55	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13:10	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:10	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	17:45	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	16:35	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	15:22	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	14:59	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	13:29	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	12:01	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-2	0	25:48	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	22:02	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:00	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	+2	0	22:58	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	4	3	-2	0	22:57	0:00
T. Murchison	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	21	18	3	.857	65:00	OT loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1J. Staal16:25J. Martinook16:36W. Carrier15:54

Line 2L. Stankoven17:25J. Blake16:28N. Ehlers16:07

Line 3A. Svechnikov13:34S. Aho13:11S. Jarvis12:12

Line 4T. Hall10:56E. Robinson10:18M. Jankowski8:54

Pair 1S. Gostisbehere21:12J. Chatfield22:12

Pair 2S. Walker21:44K. Miller20:50

Pair 3J. Nystrom13:49A. Nikishin11:58

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier15:52O. Tippett14:55M. Michkov13:48

Line 2T. Konecny15:29T. Zegras16:17C. Dvorak15:32

Line 3B. Brink13:55N. Grebenkin13:29N. Cates12:20

Line 4G. Hathaway11:38C. Grundstrom12:09R. Abols12:19

Pair 1N. Seeler20:29T. Sanheim21:59

Pair 2E. Andrae21:21J. Drysdale20:00

Pair 3N. Juulsen13:24T. Murchison14:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, PHI 2.5	CAR 4, PHI 3
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	CAR 28.9, PHI 23.2	CAR 21, PHI 18
Win chance	CAR 61%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	3	0.85	1	32%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	0	0.76	1	27%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.77	1	26%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.3	0	0.92	0	32%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	1	0.59	0	24%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	1	0.74	2	24%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.1	2	0.62	0	24%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	2	0.80	1	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	3	0.51	0	19%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	2	0.31	0	10%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	1	0.61	0	21%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	1	0.72	2	12%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	2	0.54	0	16%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	1	0.52	0	18%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.7	2	0.25	1	13%	1
CAR T. Hall	1.6	0	0.50	1	19%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.43	0	9%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	2	0.48	1	17%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	0	0.51	0	17%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	1	0.33	1	8%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.4	2	0.41	0	17%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	2	0.38	1	9%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	1	0.25	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.31	0	13%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	1	0.37	0	14%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	2	0.20	0	3%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.0	0	0.16	1	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.0	0	0.32	1	7%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.0	1	0.16	1	3%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.26	0	13%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	1	0.21	0	9%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	0	0.09	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.