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Game Recap
CAR4
PHI1
CAR beat PHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.10 expected goals to 1.81. CAR outshot PHI 31 to 19. A. Svechnikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Chatfield had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. F. Andersen stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 17:27CARJ. StaalPP0.42 xG
- 2nd 2:31PHIT. Zegras0.36 xG
- 2nd 15:59CARJ. ChatfieldSH0.19 xG
- 3rd 3:52CARA. SvechnikovPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 7:08CARN. Ehlers0.13 xG
Team Stats
CARPHI
31Shots on goal19
4.10Expected goals1.81
69Shot attempts34
215v5 shots on goal12
2/9Power play0/5
31Hits41
9Blocked shots17
18Penalty minutes38
11Giveaways16
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.10 xGPHI 1.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 6:45 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:26 | 2:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:32 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:10 | 6:44 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 7:34 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:47 | 6:53 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:15 | 3:34 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:38 | 3:51 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:54 | 2:44 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 1:24 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 1:22 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:46 | 8:07 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:45 | 3:17 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:07 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:26 | 1:24 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:07 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:52 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:28 | 3:58 |
| P. Martone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 3:54 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:43 | 1:45 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:40 | 4:09 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 14 | 16:17 | 4:31 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:04 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 14:30 | 3:09 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 2:19 |
| A. Bump | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:49 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:47 | 0:02 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 1:49 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:41 | 0:32 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 24:15 | 2:51 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:09 | 2:21 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 17:33 | 3:02 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven10:07J. Blake10:53T. Hall10:21
Line 2J. Staal10:38J. Martinook10:24N. Ehlers8:29
Line 3S. Aho9:51A. Svechnikov9:56S. Jarvis9:47
Line 4M. Jankowski7:11E. Robinson6:46W. Carrier8:21
Pair 1J. Slavin13:41J. Chatfield15:07
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere8:29A. Nikishin9:23
PHI
Line 1T. Zegras10:55A. Bump9:44P. Martone10:35
Line 2L. Glendening8:58G. Hathaway8:09S. Couturier9:28
Line 3C. Grundstrom10:23D. Barkey8:48M. Michkov7:40
Line 4T. Konecny10:52T. Foerster8:10C. Dvorak8:21
Pair 1J. Drysdale13:40C. York14:24
Pair 2R. Ristolainen11:27T. Sanheim14:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, PHI 2.7 | CAR 4, PHI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 28.7, PHI 23.7 | CAR 31, PHI 19 |
| Win chance | CAR 59% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 0 | 0.91 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| PHI P. Martone | 2.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 5 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI A. Bump | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI L. Glendening | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.