CAR beat PIT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.73. CAR outshot PIT 38 to 26. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Burns had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. F. Andersen stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 12:20PITD. O'Connor0.03 xG
- 1st 13:24CARJ. Blake0.16 xG
- 2nd 6:52CARM. NecasPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 17:13CARS. GostisbeherePP0.04 xG
- 3rd 11:00CARJ. Roslovic0.17 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 4.00 xGPIT 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 3:45 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:14 | 1:41 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 3:48 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 3:50 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 3:24 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 1:41 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 9:48 | 1:43 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:18 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:06 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:57 | 0:17 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:19 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 3:59 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 0:19 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 1:30 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 14:57 | 0:20 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 59:29 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 2:40 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 3:25 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 5:31 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 5:22 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:37 | 5:27 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 3:41 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12:47 | 0:58 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:39 | 3:33 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:19 | 5:19 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:50 | 5:27 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:54 | 0:01 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:29 | 3:29 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:04 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blomqvist | 38 | 34 | 4 | .895 | 60:00 | Loss |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.4, PIT 2.9 | CAR 4, PIT 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 33.6, PIT 29.2 | CAR 38, PIT 26 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 4 | 0.76 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.7 | 0 | 1.03 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 2 | 1.01 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.1 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 6 | 0.54 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.6 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.