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Game Recap
CAR0
STL3
STL beat CAR 3-0, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.57. S. Gostisbehere had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Hofer stopped 33 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
- 2nd 3:09STLN. BjugstadSH0.10 xG
- 2nd 9:45STLD. Dvorsky0.19 xG
- 2nd 12:49STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.10 xG
Team Stats
CARSTL
33Shots on goal31
2.57Expected goals2.49
80Shot attempts45
275v5 shots on goal26
0/3Power play1/3
14Hits26
8Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways19
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.57 xGSTL 2.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:22 | 3:16 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:11 | 3:17 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 4:06 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 3:13 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:33 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:44 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:12 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:49 | 2:47 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:18 | 2:43 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:29 | 0:09 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:13 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:47 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:02 | Loss |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:42 | 3:05 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 3:03 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 2:59 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:28 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:26 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:56 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:41 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 1:38 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 1:41 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:17 | 1:50 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:29 | 3:06 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:33 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 33 | 33 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1M. Jankowski13:25J. Kotkaniemi13:55E. Robinson13:08
Line 2N. Ehlers13:22A. Svechnikov13:42S. Aho12:13
Line 3J. Staal11:07J. Martinook11:30S. Jarvis12:44
Line 4T. Hall9:33L. Stankoven11:41J. Blake8:35
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere15:17J. Chatfield14:26
Pair 3M. Reilly12:51A. Nikishin13:23
STL
Line 1J. Kyrou14:16J. Neighbours13:16D. Dvorsky13:33
Line 2B. Schenn13:57J. Snuggerud13:21O. Stenberg12:43
Line 3P. Buchnevich10:43J. Berggren11:50N. Bjugstad10:01
Line 4O. Sundqvist11:21N. Walker9:41A. Toropchenko9:55
Pair 1C. Fowler17:56C. Parayko17:23
Pair 3M. Kessel14:54L. Mailloux14:41
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.1, STL 2.8 | CAR 0, STL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.3, STL 22.2 | CAR 33, STL 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 54% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.4 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.9 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.8 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.4 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.3 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.1 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.0 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.