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Game Recap
CAR4
STL0
CAR beat STL 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.69 expected goals to 2.08. CAR outshot STL 39 to 24. S. Jarvis led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Brind'Amour had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. P. Kochetkov stopped 24 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 4:45CARS. Walker0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:05CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.16 xG
- 2nd 13:35CARL. Stankoven0.15 xG
- 3rd 4:30CARN. EhlersPP0.25 xG
Team Stats
CARSTL
39Shots on goal24
3.69Expected goals2.08
61Shot attempts50
365v5 shots on goal22
1/1Power play0/1
21Hits17
13Blocked shots9
20Giveaways19
8Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.69 xGSTL 2.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:10 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:14 | 1:10 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:10 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:10 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Brind'Amour | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 1:10 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 24 | 24 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:50 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:01 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:00 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:01 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:59 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:00 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:48 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:59 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:00 |
| A. Kaskimaki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:33 | 1:12 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:12 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:48 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Jiricek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 39 | 35 | 4 | .897 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1J. Martinook16:28J. Kotkaniemi16:24S. Jarvis15:17
Line 2J. Blake15:54L. Stankoven15:05N. Ehlers14:11
Line 3S. Aho14:29A. Svechnikov13:39W. Carrier13:21
Line 4N. Deslauriers11:50E. Robinson12:41S. Brind'Amour10:39
Pair 2J. Slavin19:21J. Chatfield19:36
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere16:30J. Välimäki16:13
STL
Line 1R. Thomas16:38D. Holloway16:06J. Snuggerud15:49
Line 2J. Berggren16:08M. McTavish15:57C. McMichael13:36
Line 3P. Buchnevich14:04J. Neighbours13:10D. Dvorsky12:06
Line 4P. Suter12:07O. Stenberg10:50A. Kaskimaki13:26
Pair 2C. Parayko19:35P. Broberg22:45
Pair 3J. Barron19:30A. Jiricek16:34
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
8 of 18 overs hit (44%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | +100 | -114 | 1 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.5 | +140 | -150 | 4 | Over |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.5 | +125 | -140 | 1 | Under |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.5 | +125 | -140 | 1 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.5 | +150 | -165 | 5 | Over |
| STL M. McTavish | 2.5 | +144 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | +120 | -140 | 2 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | +100 | -118 | 1 | Under |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | +120 | -145 | 3 | Over |
| STL C. McMichael | 1.5 | +125 | -145 | 3 | Over |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.5 | -135 | – | 1 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | +120 | -175 | 1 | Under |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | -110 | – | 1 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.5 | +100 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.5 | +120 | -120 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | -110 | -115 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | -110 | -115 | 3 | Over |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | +125 | -155 | 2 | Over |
4 of 35 overs hit (11%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL A. Jiricek | 0.5 | +1300 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| STL A. Kaskimaki | 0.5 | +800 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +195 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| STL B. Carlo | 0.5 | +2200 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +1200 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +450 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. Parayko | 0.5 | +1300 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 0.5 | +600 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | +240 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| CAR E. Robinson | 0.5 | +650 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Berggren | 0.5 | +600 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +235 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 0.5 | +1300 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 0.5 | +500 | -900 | 1 | Over |
| CAR J. Martinook | 0.5 | +500 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +360 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.5 | +1400 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | +250 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Välimäki | 0.5 | +1200 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +850 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +240 | -300 | 1 | Over |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +310 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.5 | +750 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +240 | -285 | 1 | Over |
| STL O. Stenberg | 0.5 | +900 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.5 | +800 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +360 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Suter | 0.5 | +700 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | +320 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +195 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Brind'Amour | 0.5 | +650 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +550 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 0.5 | +235 | -320 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +1000 | -1600 | 1 | Over |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.5 | +500 | -750 | 0 | Under |
5 of 23 overs hit (22%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +145 | -190 | 1 | Over |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +200 | -265 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +250 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | +150 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Berggren | 0.5 | +270 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +160 | -195 | 1 | Over |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 0.5 | +360 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Martinook | 0.5 | +300 | -550 | 1 | Over |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +260 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.5 | +295 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | +200 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +240 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +186 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +230 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +148 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.5 | +175 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +230 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | +105 | -120 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +112 | -140 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +105 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 0.5 | +190 | -225 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +260 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.5 | +280 | -400 | 0 | Under |
8 of 23 overs hit (35%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | -150 | +125 | 1 | Over |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +165 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +140 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | -130 | +105 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Berggren | 0.5 | +180 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | -135 | +110 | 1 | Over |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 0.5 | +270 | -380 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Martinook | 0.5 | +180 | -250 | 1 | Over |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +150 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.5 | +235 | -330 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | -125 | +100 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +176 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +105 | -115 | 1 | Over |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +115 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | -140 | +120 | 1 | Over |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.5 | +150 | -170 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +122 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | -162 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | -190 | +160 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | -105 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 0.5 | -115 | +105 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +200 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.5 | +170 | -200 | 0 | Under |
3 of 17 overs hit (18%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +225 | -325 | 1 | Over |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.5 | +450 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| STL C. McMichael | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| STL D. Holloway | 0.5 | +270 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Berggren | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +250 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Neighbours | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 0.5 | +333 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| STL M. McTavish | 0.5 | +340 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +230 | -350 | 1 | Over |
| STL P. Broberg | 0.5 | +340 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 0.5 | +450 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| STL R. Thomas | 0.5 | +275 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +210 | -275 | 1 | Over |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +200 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 0.5 | +360 | -500 | 0 | Under |
1 of 1 overs hit (100%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Hofer | 26.5 | -105 | -120 | 35 | Over |
0 of 1 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | BLK | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | -145 | +105 | 0 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, STL 2.8 | CAR 4, STL 0 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.2, STL 22.8 | CAR 39, STL 24 |
| Win chance | CAR 56% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 1 | 0.90 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.4 | 5 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.2 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| STL M. McTavish | 2.0 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.5 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.5 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL C. McMichael | 1.4 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.2 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL A. Kaskimaki | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Jiricek | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL J. Barron | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.9 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Välimäki | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Brind'Amour | 0.8 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL B. Carlo | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.