TBL beat CAR 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 1.63. J. Staal led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Eyssimont had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 16:38TBLB. Hagel0.29 xG
- 2nd 6:31CARA. Svechnikov0.03 xG
- 2nd 9:17TBLN. PaulPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 9:56CARJ. Staal0.02 xG
- 3rd 19:08TBLB. Point0.20 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 1.63 xGTBL 3.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:45 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 18:35 | 1:44 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 1:51 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 1:44 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:15 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:09 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:15 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:16 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:52 | 0:07 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:01 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:31 | 1:53 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 59:13 | Loss |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:50 | 5:14 |
| B. Point | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:48 | 4:31 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:47 | 4:48 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 4:35 |
| N. Paul | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:29 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:45 | 1:04 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:17 | 1:15 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:42 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:07 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:15 | 1:52 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:37 | 4:09 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:00 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, TBL 3.2 | CAR 2, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.4, TBL 26.5 | CAR 31, TBL 33 |
| Win chance | CAR 51% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.8 | 5 | 1.43 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 0 | 0.96 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.3 | 5 | 1.07 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.3 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.1 | 5 | 0.90 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.8 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.7 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.6 | 5 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR T. Smith | 1.3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.