Game Recap: CAR 4, TBL 2, March 14, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR4

FinalSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night

TBL2

CAR beat TBL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.31 expected goals to 2.47. CAR outshot TBL 35 to 19. A. Svechnikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Svechnikov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. F. Andersen stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	2	0	2	4
TBL	0	2	0	2

1st 0:36CARA. Svechnikov0.22 xG
1st 17:28CARS. Aho0.55 xG
2nd 14:10TBLY. Gourde0.06 xG
2nd 15:31TBLC. D'Astous0.09 xG
3rd 9:18CARJ. Martinook0.02 xG
3rd 18:29CARL. StankovenEN0.47 xG

Team Stats

CARTBL

35Shots on goal19

4.31Expected goals2.47

67Shot attempts38

295v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play0/3

27Hits26

10Blocked shots14

13Penalty minutes11

11Giveaways14

9Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 4.31 xGTBL 2.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR35 on goal, 4 scored

TBL19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	2	20:28	0:45
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	1	2	6	4	0	+1	2	19:24	0:45
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:51	1:15
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	14:19	1:29
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:17	1:29
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	0	13:45	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	17:56	1:30
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	7	16:14	0:45
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	13:35	0:32
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	10:13	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	9:53	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	9:13	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	3	2	+1	0	24:05	1:30
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	2	3	3	+1	2	20:13	0:15
M. Reilly	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	12:31	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	24:16	0:15
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	23:10	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	14:03	0:45

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	19	17	2	.895	59:34	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:35	2:12
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	15:40	1:15
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	2	15:20	0:00
P. Holmberg	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	12:03	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	20:00	2:46
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	19:22	2:03
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	18:30	2:24
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:13	2:10
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	14:19	1:55
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	13:02	2:01
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	9:57	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	8:20	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	-1	0	18:27	1:42
C. D'Astous	D	1	0	1	1	4	2	+1	0	18:03	0:14
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23:14	2:33
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:55	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	18:11	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	16:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	34	31	3	.912	58:48	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho15:45A. Svechnikov16:11S. Jarvis12:20

Line 2L. Stankoven13:10J. Blake15:21T. Hall12:22

Line 3J. Staal11:15J. Martinook11:31N. Ehlers10:21

Line 4M. Jankowski8:22E. Robinson8:32W. Carrier9:09

Pair 1J. Slavin18:44J. Chatfield18:20

Pair 2K. Miller18:34S. Walker16:29

Pair 3M. Reilly11:39A. Nikishin12:30

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde13:47P. Holmberg11:47Z. Girgensons6:39

Line 2A. Cirelli11:57B. Hagel14:02N. Kucherov15:17

Line 3B. Point14:00G. Goncalves13:38J. Guentzel12:01

Line 4C. Perry10:27N. Paul9:10O. Bjorkstrand11:58

Pair 1J. Moser18:36D. Raddysh17:49

Pair 2R. McDonagh15:38C. D'Astous16:31

Pair 3E. Cernak12:52V. Hedman14:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJake Guentzel TBL Faces CAR, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.2, TBL 3.3	CAR 4, TBL 2
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	CAR 29.8, TBL 25.2	CAR 35, TBL 19
Win chance	TBL 52%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	2	0.77	0	30%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	2.7	5	1.56	0	35%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	3	0.89	0	30%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.85	2	30%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	6	0.72	2	26%	1
TBL J. Guentzel	2.3	0	0.95	0	33%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	2	0.69	1	25%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.1	0	0.71	0	13%	0
TBL B. Point	2.0	1	0.98	1	35%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	2	0.25	1	7%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	1	0.42	1	17%	1
CAR J. Blake	1.8	4	0.47	0	20%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	0	0.54	0	20%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	2	0.48	1	19%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	0	0.27	0	7%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	2	0.38	1	8%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	0	0.57	0	20%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	2	0.40	0	16%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.4	0	0.46	0	20%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	3	0.23	0	7%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	2	0.32	0	9%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.3	1	0.49	1	8%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.3	0	0.17	1	4%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	1	0.33	1	13%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	3	0.45	1	14%	1
TBL N. Paul	1.2	1	0.34	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.21	0	11%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	0	0.23	0	11%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	2	0.20	0	11%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.27	0	6%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	0	0.29	1	12%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.1	0	0.43	1	15%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	2	0.25	0	12%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	0.9	1	0.28	1	4%	1
TBL R. McDonagh	0.8	2	0.30	0	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.