Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CAR5
Final/SOSat, Mar 16, 2024Every game that night
TOR4

CAR beat TOR 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 3.94 expected goals to 5.54. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 36 of 40.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
CAR02215
TOR03104
  1. 2nd 4:47TORJ. Tavares0.15 xG
  2. 2nd 6:27TORW. Nylander0.15 xG
  3. 2nd 12:03TORN. Robertson0.17 xG
  4. 2nd 13:27CARJ. Martinook0.18 xG
  5. 2nd 19:57CARS. JarvisPP0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 2:55TORD. Kampf0.13 xG
  7. 3rd 18:28CARS. AhoPP0.22 xG
  8. 3rd 19:53CARS. Aho0.08 xG

Team Stats

CARTOR
40Shots on goal40
3.94Expected goals5.54
75Shot attempts70
285v5 shots on goal23
2/5Power play0/4
25Hits37
15Blocked shots16
8Penalty minutes10
11Giveaways15
11Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.94 xGTOR 5.54 xGGoal

01234561st2nd3rdOTTOR goal, 4:47TOR goal, 6:27TOR goal, 12:03CAR goal, 13:27CAR goal, 19:57TOR goal, 2:55CAR goal, 18:28CAR goal, 19:53

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR40 on goal, 4 scored
TOR38 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. AhoC213431+1025:155:32
J. GuentzelC0225100220:225:39
S. JarvisRW101213-1022:425:31
E. KuznetsovC011310+1016:572:09
J. MartinookLW101310-1214:100:07
J. FastRW0111410213:230:06
M. NecasC000610+1020:072:20
A. SvechnikovRW0002000019:335:47
J. StaalC000222-1217:220:43
J. KotkaniemiC000000-208:421:47
S. NoesenRW000001-207:271:44
B. LemieuxLW000020-106:090:00
B. BurnsD0221210024:575:54
D. OrlovD011240-1017:020:53
B. SkjeiD000223+1025:061:45
J. SlavinD000212-2021:080:10
B. PesceD000101-1019:470:00
J. ChatfieldD000400-1013:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Kochetkov40364.90061:26Win
S. Martin000–0:00

TOR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. TavaresC112310+1217:184:43
W. NylanderRW1013010021:115:38
D. KampfC101120+1216:580:05
N. RobertsonLW101220+2011:081:31
A. MatthewsC000711-1023:476:05
B. McMannC0005300017:310:00
M. DomiC000700+1015:552:24
T. BertuzziLW000100-1015:422:25
C. DewarC000241+1213:280:05
P. HolmbergRW000011-1011:520:00
M. KniesLW000120+2211:511:41
N. GregorLW000141+109:430:05
M. RiellyD022222+3023:264:17
T. BrodieD011000-2022:230:05
T. LiljegrenD011521+2020:533:24
J. McCabeD000042+1221:331:52
J. EdmundsonD0000240018:470:05
I. LyubushkinD0000720015:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Samsonov40364.90065:00OT loss
J. Woll000–0:00