UTA beat CAR 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.05 expected goals to 5.55. CAR outshot UTA 50 to 21. N. Bjugstad led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Blake had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 49 of 50.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
- 1st 17:55UTAN. Bjugstad0.21 xG
- 2nd 10:04CARM. NecasPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 5:09UTAJ. McBain0.22 xG
- 3rd 7:11UTAM. Sergachev0.08 xG
- 3rd 7:28UTAN. Bjugstad0.30 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 5.55 xGUTA 2.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 22:31 | 10:04 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:58 | 9:07 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 9:18 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 9:48 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:29 | 4:03 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 1:54 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:14 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 2:54 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 4:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:06 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:06 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:32 | 10:28 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 3:11 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:06 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:29 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:06 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 2:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 46:45 | Loss |
| S. Martin | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 10:55 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Bjugstad | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:54 | 1:12 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:47 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 1:16 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 1:15 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:44 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:13 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:45 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:48 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 17 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:01 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 24:48 | 0:59 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +2 | 4 | 24:35 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 50 | 49 | 1 | .980 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Ingram | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.6, UTA 2.8 | CAR 1, UTA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 33.1, UTA 25.2 | CAR 50, UTA 21 |
| Win chance | CAR 62% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 7 | 0.84 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.4 | 4 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.3 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.7 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 5 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.4 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 7 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| UTA M. Lamoureux | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.