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Game Recap
CAR4
VAN3
CAR beat VAN 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.54 expected goals to 3.53. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Q. Hughes had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. P. Kochetkov stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 5:40CARW. Carrier0.07 xG
- 1st 7:17VANB. Boeser0.22 xG
- 1st 15:33CARM. Necas0.15 xG
- 2nd 1:53CARJ. Roslovic0.04 xG
- 3rd 7:56VANQ. Hughes0.05 xG
- 3rd 16:55VANP. Suter0.04 xG
- OT 0:47CARS. Aho0.51 xG
Team Stats
CARVAN
32Shots on goal27
3.54Expected goals3.53
51Shot attempts49
255v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play0/3
23Hits28
12Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways11
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.54 xGVAN 3.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:17 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 3:22 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:39 | 3:21 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:09 | 1:58 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 2:02 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:25 | 1:57 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 2:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 3:19 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:44 | 2:02 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:57 | 3:17 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 60:42 | Win |
| S. Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:59 | 4:15 |
| B. Boeser | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 4:17 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 1:44 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 1:19 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 1:40 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:38 | 4:21 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:37 | 4:20 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:19 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 1:26 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Bains | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:39 | 4:22 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 1:38 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:00 |
| E. Brannstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:19 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 60:19 | OT loss |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, VAN 2.8 | CAR 4, VAN 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 31.1, VAN 24.8 | CAR 32, VAN 27 |
| Win chance | CAR 56% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.6 | 1 | 0.67 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.4 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.2 | 1 | 0.96 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.1 | 3 | 0.72 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.1 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 1.8 | 6 | 0.78 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN D. Sprong | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 1.5 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.2 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VAN E. Brannstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN A. Bains | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.