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Game Recap
CAR6
FinalTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night
VAN3

CAR beat VAN 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.15 expected goals to 1.93. CAR outshot VAN 44 to 17. L. Stankoven led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Svechnikov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. P. Kochetkov stopped 14 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CAR2136
VAN2103
  1. 1st 4:44CARL. Stankoven0.15 xG
  2. 1st 10:10VANL. Karlsson0.10 xG
  3. 1st 12:09CARN. Ehlers0.12 xG
  4. 1st 19:58VANJ. LekkerimäkiPP0.14 xG
  5. 2nd 2:26CARN. Deslauriers0.14 xG
  6. 2nd 13:07VANA. Bains0.27 xG
  7. 3rd 4:07CARN. Deslauriers0.12 xG
  8. 3rd 10:22CARN. Ehlers0.14 xG
  9. 3rd 17:57CARL. StankovenEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

CARVAN
44Shots on goal17
5.15Expected goals1.93
77Shot attempts38
345v5 shots on goal15
0/5Power play1/2
10Hits26
9Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes10
15Giveaways16
2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 5.15 xGVAN 1.93 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdCAR goal, 4:44VAN goal, 10:10CAR goal, 12:09VAN goal, 19:58CAR goal, 2:26VAN goal, 13:07CAR goal, 4:07CAR goal, 10:22CAR goal, 17:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR43 on goal, 6 scored
VAN17 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. BlakeRW033510+4020:307:12
L. StankovenC213501+3018:573:45
N. EhlersLW213400+3017:106:00
N. DeslauriersLW202220+2010:440:00
J. KotkaniemiC011100+2014:142:55
B. NadeauLW011100+1014:092:27
S. AhoC000400-1020:017:23
A. SvechnikovRW000600-1019:047:27
E. RobinsonLW000120+1013:140:00
W. CarrierLW000430-1013:050:00
F. Unger SörumRW000200-1012:452:23
J. MartinookLW0000000012:350:00
K. MillerD011200+2021:492:39
J. VälimäkiD011112+1011:290:00
J. ChatfieldD000101+1020:390:05
S. WalkerD000212+2220:110:21
J. SlavinD000302+1018:510:00
S. GostisbehereD000001+1217:407:23
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Kochetkov17143.82460:00Win
B. Bussi000–0:00

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. DeBruskLW022120-1013:352:53
B. BoeserRW011010-2021:312:53
E. PetterssonC011001-1018:412:53
J. LekkerimäkiRW101300-2015:512:53
M. SassonC101320-1213:440:00
L. KarlssonC1012200211:430:00
B. GallagherRW011010-109:140:00
F. ChytilC000201-2418:430:00
D. O'ConnorLW000220-1216:260:00
P. CotterLW000020-2015:240:00
L. OhgrenLW0000200011:080:00
A. BainsLW000120-108:540:00
Z. BuiumD011000-1015:220:00
F. HronekD000013-2027:002:53
J. OleksiakD000202-2022:540:00
E. PetterssonD0001440021:040:00
L. SchennD000052-2015:330:00
T. WillanderD0000010014:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen43385.88459:11Loss
K. Lankinen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho11:46A. Svechnikov11:37W. Carrier13:05
Line 2L. Stankoven13:33J. Blake12:29N. Ehlers10:21
Line 3J. Kotkaniemi11:19B. Nadeau11:42N. Deslauriers10:44
Line 4J. Martinook10:31E. Robinson11:14F. Sörum10:22
Pair 1S. Walker18:42K. Miller18:05
Pair 2J. Slavin16:17J. Chatfield17:57
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere10:17J. Välimäki11:29

VAN

Line 1F. Chytil15:38P. Cotter15:24B. Boeser13:15
Line 2D. O'Connor12:16J. Lekkerimäki12:09L. Ohgren11:05
Line 3J. DeBrusk9:53E. Pettersson9:46L. Karlsson11:43
Line 4B. Gallagher9:13A. Bains8:53M. Sasson10:05
Pair 1J. Oleksiak16:39F. Hronek17:10
Pair 2L. Schenn11:58Z. Buium15:13
Pair 3E. Pettersson17:38T. Willander13:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 16 overs hit (69%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5-132+1056Over
CAR J. Blake2.5+105-1185Over
VAN J. DeBrusk2.5+134-1551Under
CAR L. Stankoven2.5+125-1555Over
CAR N. Ehlers2.5+108-1304Over
CAR S. Aho2.5-125+1054Over
VAN B. Boeser1.5-122+1050Under
VAN F. Chytil1.5-130+1052Over
VAN F. Hronek1.5+110-1350Under
CAR J. Chatfield1.5+120-1151Under
CAR J. Slavin1.5+105-1353Over
CAR K. Miller1.5+120-1552Over
VAN L. Karlsson1.5+100-1102Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-130+1050Under
CAR S. Walker1.5-154+1152Over
CAR W. Carrier1.5+115-1504Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCAR 3.8, VAN 2.5CAR 6, VAN 3
Total goals6.39
Shots on goalCAR 33.1, VAN 21.5CAR 44, VAN 17
Win chanceCAR 70%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR A. Svechnikov2.660.90030%0
CAR S. Aho2.641.10034%0
CAR L. Stankoven2.550.67326%2
CAR J. Blake2.450.87326%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.440.93328%2
VAN J. DeBrusk2.210.52225%0
VAN F. Chytil2.220.47020%0
VAN B. Boeser1.900.66127%0
CAR S. Walker1.820.4209%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.720.50118%1
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.600.69012%0
CAR E. Robinson1.610.43016%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.600.71125%0
CAR J. Martinook1.600.42015%0
VAN D. O'Connor1.520.35016%0
CAR J. Slavin1.530.3607%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.510.3408%0
CAR W. Carrier1.440.37013%0
CAR K. Miller1.420.51110%0
VAN F. Hronek1.400.5008%0
CAR B. Nadeau1.310.31113%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.200.35014%0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki1.230.40116%1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.210.35112%0
VAN B. Gallagher1.100.23110%0
VAN P. Cotter1.100.36018%0
VAN M. Sasson0.930.26114%1
CAR J. Välimäki0.910.2414%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.810.2007%0
VAN T. Willander0.800.2906%0
CAR N. Deslauriers0.720.1125%2
VAN J. Oleksiak0.720.1804%0
VAN Z. Buium0.700.2215%0
VAN A. Bains0.710.1808%0
VAN L. Schenn0.600.1002%0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.