Game Recap: CAR 1, VGK 4, October 20, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CAR1

FinalMon, Oct 20, 2025Every game that night

VGK4

VGK beat CAR 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 2.14. I. Barbashev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Saad had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Schmid stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	0	1	0	1
VGK	2	0	2	4

1st 8:42VGKJ. Eichel0.02 xG
1st 10:28VGKP. Dorofeyev0.17 xG
2nd 4:18CARS. Aho0.12 xG
3rd 11:06VGKI. Barbashev0.23 xG
3rd 18:23VGKW. KarlssonEN0.56 xG

Team Stats

CARVGK

27Shots on goal26

2.14Expected goals3.00

62Shot attempts53

195v5 shots on goal21

0/4Power play0/4

15Hits13

18Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways18

1Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.14 xGVGK 3.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR27 on goal, 1 scored

VGK25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	21:25	3:25
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	-2	0	21:01	3:38
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	4	18:22	3:43
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:32	2:08
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:02	3:41
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:11	2:03
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	13:38	2:05
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:36	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:13	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:54	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:14	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	8:54	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	24:02	3:28
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	-2	2	23:48	2:04
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	4	5	-1	2	21:08	0:18
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	20:53	0:14
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	14:45	2:03
C. Legault	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	25	22	3	.880	58:52	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	20:37	6:00
I. Barbashev	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	14:31	0:38
J. Eichel	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+3	0	21:30	5:46
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	18:10	5:47
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	2	17:06	5:31
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+2	0	16:32	0:00
W. Karlsson	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:37	0:25
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:40	0:38
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	12:12	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	11:48	0:00
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	9:51	0:38
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:26	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+2	2	23:58	5:27
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+2	0	21:45	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:52	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	17:17	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	16:43	0:03
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:04	1:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	4	4	0	1.000	9:54
A. Schmid	23	22	1	.957	50:06	Win

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1S. Aho12:54S. Jarvis13:18N. Ehlers13:46

Line 2L. Stankoven12:50J. Blake12:06T. Hall11:53

Line 3J. Staal10:51J. Martinook10:17W. Carrier9:54

Line 4J. Kotkaniemi8:29E. Robinson9:04A. Svechnikov9:25

Pair 1J. Chatfield16:51A. Nikishin18:55

Pair 2S. Walker17:23K. Miller14:56

Pair 3M. Reilly11:05C. Legault11:33

VGK

Line 1B. Saad15:27J. Eichel13:02I. Barbashev13:12

Line 2T. Hertl11:38M. Marner12:14P. Dorofeyev11:19

Line 3C. Sissons10:02K. Kolesar10:26C. Reinhardt7:26

Line 4W. Karlsson10:30A. Holtz9:13R. Smith10:41

Pair 1B. McNabb16:45S. Theodore15:30

Pair 2K. Korczak15:23J. Lauzon14:43

Pair 3B. Hutton14:32Z. Whitecloud13:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamWilliam Carrier CAR Faces VGK, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 2.9, VGK 3.0	CAR 1, VGK 4
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	CAR 28.1, VGK 26.1	CAR 27, VGK 26
Win chance	VGK 51%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.0	4	1.03	1	30%	1
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.9	4	0.62	1	31%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	2	0.75	1	26%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	2	0.78	1	28%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	3	0.88	1	30%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	2	0.68	1	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.0	2	0.45	0	17%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.0	3	0.47	0	19%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.0	2	0.60	0	22%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	4	0.26	0	8%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	2	0.53	1	20%	1
VGK M. Marner	1.8	0	1.10	2	28%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	0	0.46	0	18%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.6	1	0.55	1	7%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.6	3	0.23	0	4%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	2	0.41	0	16%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.4	4	0.36	1	17%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	2	0.39	0	9%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.3	1	0.37	0	14%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.3	1	0.26	0	13%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.3	2	0.55	2	20%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	2	0.22	0	7%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	0	0.30	0	11%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.1	1	0.33	0	5%	0
VGK B. McNabb	0.9	1	0.26	0	4%	0
VGK K. Korczak	0.9	1	0.23	0	3%	0
VGK C. Sissons	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.24	0	9%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	1	0.12	0	3%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.7	1	0.18	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.