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Game Recap
CAR3
WPG2
CAR beat WPG 3-2, with the chances close: 3.26 expected goals to 2.82. CAR outshot WPG 37 to 23. S. Gostisbehere led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Jankowski had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| WPG | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 4:23WPGM. Scheifele0.16 xG
- 2nd 8:19CARM. JankowskiPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 10:59WPGA. Iafallo0.22 xG
- 2nd 16:50CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.09 xG
- 3rd 6:43CARN. EhlersPP0.11 xG
Team Stats
CARWPG
37Shots on goal23
3.26Expected goals2.82
73Shot attempts50
325v5 shots on goal16
2/2Power play0/1
21Hits33
10Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways14
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 3.26 xGWPG 2.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:54 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:46 |
| B. Nadeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:54 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:54 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:51 | 2:46 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 2:46 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:46 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| F. Unger Sörum | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:54 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:46 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:54 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:19 | 1:11 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:31 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:09 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 | 1:20 |
| V. Björck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:11 | 0:47 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:13 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:43 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:49 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Lambert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:21 | 1:26 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:44 | 0:00 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:33 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:51 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stevenson | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 59:00 | Loss |
| S. Skinner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CAR
Line 1J. Blake16:17L. Stankoven15:12B. Nadeau14:21
Line 2S. Aho16:15A. Svechnikov14:37W. Carrier14:39
Line 3J. Martinook12:03N. Ehlers11:54M. Jankowski10:32
Line 4J. Kotkaniemi10:00E. Robinson9:38F. Sörum8:26
Pair 2J. Slavin19:18J. Chatfield18:15
Pair 3M. Reilly12:22S. Gostisbehere11:59
WPG
Line 1G. Vilardi16:12V. Björck16:08N. Niederreiter13:28
Line 2M. Scheifele16:17K. Connor15:26C. Perfetti14:29
Line 3A. Iafallo14:06I. Rosen13:42A. Lowry12:43
Line 4M. Barron9:23C. Koepke6:01B. Lambert5:55
Pair 1D. Samberg20:29N. Pionk19:45
Pair 2D. DeMelo19:05M. Ferraro15:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
9 of 14 overs hit (64%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | -115 | +100 | 2 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.5 | +108 | -135 | 4 | Over |
| WPG K. Connor | 2.5 | -160 | +135 | 2 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.5 | +125 | -155 | 5 | Over |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | +112 | -130 | 1 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | +102 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.5 | -155 | +122 | 3 | Over |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.5 | +105 | -120 | 2 | Over |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | +125 | -160 | 3 | Over |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | +115 | -150 | 2 | Over |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.5 | -130 | +106 | 3 | Over |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.5 | -110 | -105 | 1 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.5 | -120 | +100 | 3 | Over |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | -105 | -105 | 2 | Over |
5 of 35 overs hit (14%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG A. Iafallo | 0.5 | +600 | -900 | 1 | Over |
| WPG A. Lowry | 0.5 | +750 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +180 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.5 | +800 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR B. Nadeau | 0.5 | +380 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Koepke | 0.5 | +1000 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | +280 | -390 | 0 | Under |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.5 | +2200 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| WPG D. Samberg | 0.5 | +1800 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CAR E. Robinson | 0.5 | +550 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| CAR F. Sörum | 0.5 | +550 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | +290 | -440 | 0 | Under |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.5 | +1800 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| WPG I. Rosen | 0.5 | +750 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +230 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 0.5 | +1300 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 0.5 | +700 | -2000 | 1 | Over |
| CAR J. Martinook | 0.5 | +440 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Slavin | 0.5 | +1600 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| WPG J. Ivany | 0.5 | +2500 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| WPG K. Connor | 0.5 | +175 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +800 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +250 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Barron | 0.5 | +900 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Ferraro | 0.5 | +1600 | -3500 | 0 | Under |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.5 | +390 | -500 | 1 | Over |
| CAR M. Reilly | 0.5 | +2200 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | +230 | -310 | 1 | Over |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +250 | -250 | 1 | Over |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 0.5 | +650 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | +800 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +195 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +500 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +850 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| CAR W. Carrier | 0.5 | +425 | -750 | 0 | Under |
2 of 14 overs hit (14%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG A. Iafallo | 0.5 | +380 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +135 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | +165 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | +200 | -225 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +160 | -195 | 0 | Under |
| WPG K. Connor | 0.5 | +135 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +175 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +230 | -250 | 1 | Over |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | +105 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +142 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | +155 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +110 | -130 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +125 | -155 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +225 | -325 | 0 | Under |
5 of 14 overs hit (36%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG A. Iafallo | 0.5 | +235 | -340 | 1 | Over |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | -170 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | -115 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | +105 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | -132 | +105 | 0 | Under |
| WPG K. Connor | 0.5 | -180 | +150 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +135 | -170 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +100 | -105 | 1 | Over |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | -175 | +145 | 1 | Over |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | -145 | +120 | 1 | Over |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | +120 | -132 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | -200 | +165 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +100 | -105 | 2 | Over |
| CAR S. Walker | 0.5 | +155 | -220 | 0 | Under |
3 of 12 overs hit (25%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 0.5 | +225 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 0.5 | +270 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 0.5 | +270 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| CAR J. Blake | 0.5 | +250 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| WPG K. Connor | 0.5 | +195 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| CAR K. Miller | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 0.5 | +340 | -750 | 1 | Over |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 0.5 | +220 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 0.5 | +230 | -280 | 1 | Over |
| WPG N. Pionk | 0.5 | +300 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Aho | 0.5 | +210 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 0.5 | +260 | -350 | 1 | Over |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.3, WPG 2.7 | CAR 3, WPG 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 29.8, WPG 23.1 | CAR 37, WPG 23 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 2 | 1.05 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 0 | 0.95 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 5 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.2 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.1 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.8 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR B. Nadeau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Björck | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG I. Rosen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Ferraro | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG B. Lambert | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG J. Ivany | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.