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Game Recap
CAR1
WSH3
WSH beat CAR 3-1, with the chances close: 2.65 expected goals to 2.95. C. Lindgren stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| WSH | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 19:17WSHA. Protas0.07 xG
- 2nd 16:11WSHJ. Vrana0.06 xG
- 2nd 19:33WSHC. McMichael0.10 xG
- 3rd 10:22CARS. Jarvis0.02 xG
Team Stats
CARWSH
25Shots on goal22
2.95Expected goals2.65
75Shot attempts45
185v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play0/2
12Hits23
13Blocked shots27
4Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways6
7Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CAR 2.95 xGWSH 2.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 2:58 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 2:58 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:07 | 3:24 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:59 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:01 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:35 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:02 | 1:01 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:01 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:47 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:01 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 1:01 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:02 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:01 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 2:59 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:01 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:13 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 56:46 | Loss |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 1:40 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 2:18 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:01 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:35 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 1:41 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:48 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:02 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:08 | 2:09 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 2:20 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 1:33 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:18 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:08 | 2:23 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 | 1:44 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:50 | 2:16 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CAR 3.2, WSH 2.9 | CAR 1, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | CAR 30.5, WSH 26.1 | CAR 25, WSH 22 |
| Win chance | CAR 55% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.1 | 3 | 0.72 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.6 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.