Game Recap: CAR 3, WSH 2 (SO), December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

CAR3

Final/SOThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

WSH2

CAR beat WSH 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.84. CAR outshot WSH 39 to 25. N. Ehlers led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Ehlers had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. B. Bussi stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CAR	0	1	1	1	3
WSH	0	1	1	0	2

2nd 5:00WSHC. McMichael0.14 xG
2nd 13:43CARN. Ehlers0.26 xG
3rd 11:32WSHN. Dowd0.06 xG
3rd 17:45CARL. Stankoven0.17 xG

Team Stats

CARWSH

39Shots on goal25

3.83Expected goals2.84

83Shot attempts46

345v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/1

29Hits21

10Blocked shots21

7Penalty minutes9

15Giveaways9

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 3.83 xGWSH 2.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR39 on goal, 2 scored

WSH25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	1	2	6	0	0	+2	0	17:54	1:46
L. Stankoven	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	+2	0	16:54	1:47
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	21:19	2:13
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	20:30	2:13
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	20:24	3:11
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	19:51	2:13
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:46	0:49
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	5	13:26	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:21	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	11:31	1:47
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:56	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	8:06	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:57	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	16:37	1:47
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	23:41	2:13
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	2	23:04	0:01
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	22:42	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	12:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	25	23	2	.920	64:56	Win
P. Kochetkov	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	18:27	0:44
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:12	2:00
N. Dowd	C	1	0	1	1	5	2	-1	7	14:33	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	23:29	1:16
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:05	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	20:01	1:16
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	2	19:38	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	18:52	0:44
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:43	1:16
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	7:55	0:00
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	6:09	0:44
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	4:58	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	0	18:54	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	25:27	1:16
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:58	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:47	0:44
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:21	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	39	37	2	.949	65:00	OT loss
G. Bjorklund	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1A. Svechnikov16:28S. Aho16:00S. Jarvis15:44

Line 2J. Blake15:30L. Stankoven15:03N. Ehlers14:39

Line 3J. Staal14:48W. Carrier13:21J. Martinook13:26

Line 4E. Robinson9:14T. Hall9:29M. Jankowski8:06

Pair 1S. Walker21:10K. Miller21:18

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere19:18J. Chatfield21:13

Pair 3A. Nikishin13:08J. Nystrom11:45

WSH

Line 1A. Protas17:55J. Sourdif18:25T. Wilson18:26

Line 2A. Ovechkin14:12D. Strome16:33C. McMichael13:45

Line 3N. Dowd13:15E. Frank13:23A. Beauvillier17:38

Line 4B. Duhaime7:55S. Milano5:25H. Lapierre4:58

Pair 1J. Chychrun20:38M. Roy20:07

Pair 2R. Sandin18:16T. Riemsdyk17:34

Pair 3J. Carlson16:53M. Fehérváry14:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 2.9, WSH 2.9	CAR 3, WSH 2
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	CAR 29.7, WSH 25.0	CAR 39, WSH 25
Win chance	WSH 50%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	3	0.93	1	37%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	5	0.74	0	29%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	3	0.66	0	25%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	6	0.64	2	23%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.4	3	0.80	0	29%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	1	0.58	0	18%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.2	0	0.54	0	21%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.1	3	0.44	0	18%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	4	0.42	2	17%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	0	0.79	0	30%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.0	1	0.28	0	9%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	1	0.57	2	22%	1
WSH A. Protas	1.9	2	0.68	0	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	2	0.87	0	26%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	1	0.61	0	11%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	3	0.46	0	18%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.38	0	8%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.5	1	0.49	0	9%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	0	0.29	1	8%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	3	0.32	0	15%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.35	0	15%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	1	0.22	0	12%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	1	0.28	0	12%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.3	0	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	4	0.33	0	12%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.1	2	0.20	1	7%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.1	2	0.29	0	5%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.32	1	15%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	2	0.25	0	13%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.0	2	0.15	0	3%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	1	0.28	2	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.8	2	0.25	0	6%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.8	2	0.28	0	12%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	1	0.20	0	10%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	0	0.23	0	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.