Game Recap: CAR 3, WSH 4 (OT), January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

CAR3

Final/OTSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat CAR 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.60 expected goals to 2.80. WSH outshot CAR 42 to 22. J. Chychrun led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Chychrun had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. C. Stevenson stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CAR	2	1	0	0	3
WSH	0	2	1	1	4

1st 13:27CARM. Jankowski0.19 xG
1st 17:51CARS. Aho0.21 xG
2nd 4:16CARS. Gostisbehere0.01 xG
2nd 7:52WSHH. Lapierre0.14 xG
2nd 14:58WSHD. Strome0.18 xG
3rd 13:18WSHJ. Chychrun0.10 xG
OT 1:42WSHJ. Sourdif0.64 xG

Team Stats

CARWSH

22Shots on goal42

2.80Expected goals5.60

55Shot attempts80

205v5 shots on goal33

0/2Power play0/4

29Hits24

18Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways18

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CAR 2.80 xGWSH 5.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CAR22 on goal, 3 scored

WSH41 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	19:25	1:55
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	16:00	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	1	7	0	-1	0	15:19	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	12:42	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	12:26	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	11:04	0:00
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	18:48	1:57
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:16	1:56
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:58	1:28
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:54	0:04
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	6	13:41	0:04
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	13:37	0:03
S. Gostisbehere	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	15:59	2:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	23:09	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	22:43	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	22:41	0:05
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	22:10	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	13:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	42	38	4	.905	61:42	OT loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Protas	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	0	19:15	0:00
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	21:48	4:48
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+2	0	21:24	4:35
J. Sourdif	C	1	0	1	5	3	1	+1	0	18:40	2:28
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:47	2:13
S. Milano	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	8:29	2:17
H. Lapierre	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	6:13	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:25	7:02
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	16:41	4:51
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	16:18	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	14:13	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	8:59	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	1	2	6	0	1	+1	2	28:02	4:24
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	27:57	2:39
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	20:50	0:02
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:46	0:01
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:04	0:00
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	9:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Stevenson	22	19	3	.864	61:42	Win
G. Bjorklund	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CAR

Line 1T. Hall13:26L. Stankoven13:03J. Blake13:06

Line 2S. Aho13:48S. Jarvis13:19A. Svechnikov12:55

Line 3J. Staal12:04N. Ehlers12:59J. Martinook11:36

Line 4M. Jankowski11:34J. Kotkaniemi12:26W. Carrier11:04

Pair 1S. Walker20:08K. Miller19:10

Pair 2J. Slavin17:07J. Chatfield18:13

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:08A. Nikishin13:14

WSH

Line 1A. Protas17:59T. Wilson14:59J. Sourdif15:03

Line 2A. Ovechkin11:12A. Beauvillier16:18D. Strome15:59

Line 3N. Dowd13:12E. Frank13:14R. Leonard11:50

Line 4B. Duhaime8:59H. Lapierre6:13S. Milano6:12

Pair 1J. Carlson22:38R. Sandin20:45

Pair 2J. Chychrun21:43T. Riemsdyk16:45

Pair 3D. McIlrath9:15D. Chisholm10:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CAR 3.4, WSH 3.1	CAR 3, WSH 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	CAR 31.0, WSH 25.4	CAR 22, WSH 42
Win chance	CAR 54%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	4	0.81	0	30%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	3	0.90	0	36%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.6	1	0.81	0	26%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	1	0.77	0	27%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	6	0.58	2	18%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	0.90	1	30%	1
WSH A. Protas	2.0	3	0.69	2	24%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	1	0.57	0	17%	0
WSH T. Wilson	1.9	1	0.77	1	29%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	3	0.89	1	27%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.8	3	0.36	0	16%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	2	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.8	0	0.23	0	7%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	3	0.65	1	12%	1
CAR J. Blake	1.7	0	0.45	0	19%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.7	2	0.58	1	10%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	0	0.46	0	17%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.5	5	0.56	1	21%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.43	1	17%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.4	0	0.43	1	18%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.27	0	8%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	3	0.40	0	9%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	0	0.39	1	15%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.3	2	0.32	0	7%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.3	1	0.35	0	8%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	0	0.23	1	12%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.27	1	10%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.26	1	12%	1
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	2	0.34	0	15%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.8	2	0.25	0	4%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.7	2	0.28	1	12%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.6	1	0.12	0	3%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.6	1	0.15	0	8%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	4	0.19	1	6%	1
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.5	1	0.16	0	2%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.3	2	0.07	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.