Game Recap: CBJ 3, ANA 4, December 20, 2025

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Game Recap

CBJ3

FinalSat, Dec 20, 2025Every game that night

ANA4

ANA beat CBJ 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.27 expected goals to 3.23. M. Granlund led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. McTavish had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Dostal stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	1	1	3
ANA	2	1	1	4

1st 2:14ANAM. Granlund0.23 xG
1st 3:00ANAJ. Trouba0.04 xG
1st 5:54CBJD. VoronkovPP0.51 xG
2nd 3:39CBJM. Marchment0.09 xG
2nd 13:36ANAM. McTavish0.23 xG
3rd 12:44CBJZ. Werenski0.01 xG
3rd 16:31ANAP. Mintyukov0.14 xG

Team Stats

CBJANA

26Shots on goal28

3.23Expected goals4.27

69Shot attempts61

235v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play0/3

12Hits19

11Blocked shots26

4Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.23 xGANA 4.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ26 on goal, 3 scored

ANA28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	2	19:41	1:12
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	17:38	1:37
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	15:40	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	14:38	2:11
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	22:32	2:11
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	17:36	1:46
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	17:11	1:12
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:41	2:11
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:13	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:51	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	7:56	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:21	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	0	27:56	2:11
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	26:18	1:12
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	23:24	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	19:22	1:12
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	10:30	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	10:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	28	24	4	.857	59:25	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	1	2	4	1	1	+1	0	15:23	2:17
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	0	17:04	3:14
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	13:20	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	12:56	0:00
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	11:58	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:47	2:46
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	17:16	2:53
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	17:11	2:53
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16:15	3:07
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:04	2:33
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:48	2:12
J. Trouba	D	1	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	24:29	1:18
P. Mintyukov	D	1	0	1	1	0	6	+2	0	20:18	2:58
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	1	6	3	+1	0	19:21	0:42
O. Zellweger	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	13:06	0:03
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	25:03	2:59
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	13:25	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment18:14A. Fantilli18:33K. Johnson15:40

Line 2B. Jenner14:02K. Marchenko14:29C. Coyle12:38

Line 3S. Monahan11:22D. Voronkov12:08C. Sillinger10:55

Line 4I. Lundestrom7:51L. Belluz7:56E. Chinakhov7:21

Pair 1D. Mateychuk20:57Z. Werenski23:04

Pair 2I. Provorov21:06D. Severson17:40

Pair 3B. Smith9:05D. Fabbro9:09

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider13:34T. Terry14:07L. Carlsson14:12

Line 2B. Sennecke13:08M. McTavish13:50C. Gauthier13:10

Line 3A. Killorn11:34R. Johnston11:53R. Poehling10:21

Line 4M. Granlund12:45R. Strome11:36F. Vatrano11:31

Pair 1J. Trouba21:07J. LaCombe20:01

Pair 2R. Gudas17:08P. Mintyukov16:41

Pair 3O. Zellweger13:03I. Moore12:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.3, ANA 3.2	CBJ 3, ANA 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 30.0, ANA 31.4	CBJ 26, ANA 28
Win chance	CBJ 51%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	4.0	4	1.13	2	23%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.4	2	0.83	0	30%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.9	2	0.82	0	33%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	1	0.81	0	31%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.6	1	0.87	0	28%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.5	0	0.76	0	37%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.3	4	0.90	0	29%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	3	0.57	0	25%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	2.2	2	0.65	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	4	0.66	1	28%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.1	0	0.74	0	23%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.61	1	24%	1
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.0	0	0.46	0	15%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.0	2	0.38	1	19%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	6	0.59	1	21%	1
ANA M. Granlund	1.9	4	0.75	2	20%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	1.9	1	0.69	0	22%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.8	1	0.46	1	10%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	1	0.34	1	8%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	1	0.34	1	10%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	0	0.41	1	18%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.6	0	0.37	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.58	1	20%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.4	0	0.41	1	12%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	1	0.44	1	16%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	2	0.40	1	10%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.3	0	0.43	1	15%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	1	0.37	0	12%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	1	0.23	1	4%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.1	2	0.28	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	1	0.29	1	7%	1
CBJ L. Belluz	0.9	1	0.28	0	10%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.8	2	0.17	0	4%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.7	0	0.20	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.