Game Recap: CBJ 0, BOS 4, December 28, 2024

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Game Recap

CBJ0

FinalSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night

BOS4

BOS beat CBJ 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.59 expected goals to 1.48. BOS outshot CBJ 28 to 18. M. Geekie led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Swayman stopped 18 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	0	0	0
BOS	1	2	1	4

1st 2:29BOSJ. Brazeau0.43 xG
2nd 6:29BOSM. Geekie0.04 xG
2nd 8:18BOSD. Pastrnak0.28 xG
3rd 6:06BOSC. Koepke0.05 xG

Team Stats

CBJBOS

18Shots on goal28

1.48Expected goals2.59

52Shot attempts39

165v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play0/2

22Hits30

4Blocked shots16

14Penalty minutes16

18Giveaways14

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 1.48 xGBOS 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ17 on goal, 0 scored

BOS24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	4	1	0	0	0	19:01	3:57
C. Sillinger	C	2	4	0	0	0	18:38	1:25
K. Johnson	C	2	1	0	0	0	18:02	3:46
A. Fantilli	C	1	1	1	-2	0	17:55	1:08
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	-2	0	17:47	3:19
D. Voronkov	LW	2	1	1	-1	2	17:08	3:36
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	1	5	0	-2	0	15:44	0:17
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	-1	0	15:14	1:12
S. Kuraly	C	1	2	0	-2	0	14:19	0:21
M. Pyyhtia	LW	0	0	1	-2	0	13:06	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	2	0	0	10	12:29	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	4	0	1	-1	2	24:14	3:40
I. Provorov	D	1	0	0	-1	0	20:37	1:29
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	0	-1	0	20:16	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	3	0	-1	0	16:42	1:15
J. Johnson	D	0	0	0	-2	0	11:56	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	-2	0	11:40	0:00
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	0	0	0	11:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	28	24	4	.857	60:00	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	0	18:18	1:53
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	0	18:51	1:28
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	18:41	0:46
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	0	12:48	0:50
C. Koepke	LW	1	0	1	2	5	1	+1	0	12:39	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	+1	0	16:58	2:10
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:45	2:14
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	+1	0	16:42	1:44
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	14:32	0:00
F. Lysell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:32	1:02
M. McLaughlin	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:53	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	9	9:01	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	+1	0	21:17	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+4	0	19:14	1:59
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	21:04	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	19:17	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	19:03	1:06
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	17:25	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	18	18	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.9, BOS 3.6	CBJ 0, BOS 4
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.9, BOS 30.4	CBJ 18, BOS 28
Win chance	BOS 61%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	5	1.19	1	43%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.8	4	0.75	0	14%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.6	4	0.71	0	27%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	4	0.99	0	33%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.4	0	0.71	0	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	2	0.62	0	26%	0
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	0	0.78	1	26%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.0	2	0.39	0	14%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	4	0.59	2	23%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	3	0.59	0	12%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	2	0.57	0	20%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	2	0.70	0	26%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	1.7	1	0.41	0	17%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.62	0	24%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.5	0	0.36	0	12%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.5	3	0.47	1	21%	1
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	0	0.46	0	20%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.4	0	0.33	0	15%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	1.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.35	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	0	0.39	0	9%	0
BOS M. McLaughlin	1.2	0	0.30	0	18%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	0	0.23	0	5%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.1	1	0.33	0	6%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.1	2	0.30	1	14%	1
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	3	0.20	1	6%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	0	0.44	1	7%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.20	0	4%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.16	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0
CBJ J. Johnson	0.5	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.