Game Recap: CBJ 2, BUF 5, November 6, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalFri, Nov 6, 2026Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat CBJ 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.21 expected goals to 3.01. BUF outshot CBJ 37 to 26. O. Power led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). K. Johnson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. U. Luukkonen stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	1	0	1	2
BUF	2	3	0	5

1st 6:50BUFJ. Quinn0.15 xG
1st 16:00CBJK. Johnson0.15 xG
1st 18:10BUFJ. Norris0.13 xG
2nd 4:30BUFR. Dahlin0.03 xG
2nd 9:46BUFJ. Norris0.31 xG
2nd 10:53BUFJ. Doan0.35 xG
3rd 18:21CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.04 xG

Team Stats

CBJBUF

26Shots on goal37

3.01Expected goals4.21

52Shot attempts64

175v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play0/4

20Hits19

14Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways15

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.01 xGBUF 4.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ22 on goal, 2 scored

BUF37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	1	1	2	5	0	1	0	0	16:22	4:27
M. Knies	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	19:17	4:16
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	11:06	1:33
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	19:11	1:20
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	18:52	3:08
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:21	2:38
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-2	0	16:39	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	13:06	1:22
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	12:51	0:52
J. Williams	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:54	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:45	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:00	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	-2	0	24:38	4:17
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	21:00	2:45
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:51	1:22
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	17:41	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-2	2	17:06	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	4	16:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	37	32	5	.865	59:42	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	0	17:21	5:10
J. Norris	C	2	0	2	3	3	0	+3	0	13:03	2:36
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+2	2	22:09	5:02
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	18:59	5:03
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:30	5:05
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	15:37	0:20
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	4	0	2	+2	0	11:44	2:22
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:49	2:59
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	13:36	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	13:00	2:54
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	11:30	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	11:24	0:00
O. Power	D	0	3	3	3	0	0	+3	2	20:20	2:08
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	23:16	6:12
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	15:18	0:08
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	20:32	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:25	0:01
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle11:09M. Olivier13:06C. Sillinger10:08

Line 2M. Knies14:29A. Fantilli14:46C. Garland11:24

Line 3S. Lorentz8:45J. Williams9:35D. Voronkov8:00

Line 4K. Johnson10:53S. Monahan5:54V. Nichushkin13:26

Pair 1J. Christiansen15:13D. Fabbro13:56

Pair 2D. Severson14:53Z. Werenski16:37

Pair 3I. Provorov14:28D. Mateychuk13:48

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs15:01Z. Benson14:28T. Thompson13:05

Line 2J. Zucker10:50J. Norris10:03J.Kulich9:13

Line 3B. Malenstyn10:03T. Kozak9:16S. Carrick10:19

Line 4J. Quinn11:13N. Ostlund9:38J. Doan8:55

Pair 1M. Samuelsson16:02R. Dahlin15:49

Pair 2O. Zellweger15:16Z. Metsa13:57

Pair 3C. Timmins11:42O. Power15:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

15 of 26 overs hit (58%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+100	-110	3	Under
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	-114	-105	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	+100	-114	3	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	-110	+110	4	Over
BUF Z. Benson	2.5	+136	-150	3	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.5	-140	+118	3	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-120	-105	2	Over
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	+115	-150	3	Over
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.5	+115	-145	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	+120	–	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.5	+115	–	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	-105	-125	3	Over
BUF J. Doan	1.5	-120	+105	4	Over
BUF J. Norris	1.5	-145	–	3	Over
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	-105	-125	3	Over
BUF J.Kulich	1.5	-105	-125	4	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-130	+115	5	Over
CBJ M. Knies	1.5	+108	-115	1	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	-120	-110	3	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	+120	-155	1	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	1.5	-145	+115	3	Over
BUF O. Power	1.5	+125	-140	3	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	1.5	-130	+102	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	-105	–	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-105	-120	0	Under

6 of 34 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+235	-250	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
BUF C. Timmins	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+850	-2800	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
CBJ D. Voronkov	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
CBJ I. Provorov	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+330	-500	1	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+380	-700	2	Over
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+200	-270	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+260	-350	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+290	-440	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+280	-370	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+475	-650	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+370	-475	1	Over
BUF S. Carrick	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
BUF T. Kozak	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+270	-400	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+400	-650	1	Over

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+175	-200	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+270	-500	1	Over
CBJ I. Provorov	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+280	-275	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+295	-425	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+158	-175	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+230	-275	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+170	-220	1	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+158	-175	3	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+260	-345	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+230	-300	1	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-115	+105	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+130	-135	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+250	-295	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+115	-135	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-115	-104	0	Under

12 of 20 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
BUF T. Thompson	1.5	+175	-230	1	Under
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	-115	+105	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+105	-111	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+225	-320	1	Over
CBJ I. Provorov	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+150	-190	2	Over
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-148	+130	2	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	-115	-105	2	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+110	-125	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	-115	-110	1	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+120	-139	3	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+185	-230	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+140	-160	1	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-185	+170	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	-150	+140	1	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-150	+140	1	Over

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CBJ A. Fantilli	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+333	-500	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+300	-375	1	Over
CBJ M. Knies	0.5	+325	-500	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+220	-225	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+230	-325	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+300	-300	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CBJ J. Greaves	25.5	-106	-110	32	Over
BUF U. Luukkonen	22.5	-125	-110	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	-140	+100	3	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	1.5	-140	+100	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.9, BUF 3.4	CBJ 2, BUF 5
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 25.9, BUF 29.0	CBJ 26, BUF 37
Win chance	BUF 59%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	3	1.01	1	39%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	3	0.93	1	18%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.9	4	0.93	1	23%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.7	3	0.81	2	29%	1
BUF Z. Benson	2.4	3	0.87	1	27%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	0	0.66	0	27%	0
BUF O. Zellweger	2.0	0	0.40	0	14%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	2.0	5	0.65	2	23%	1
BUF J. Doan	1.9	4	0.51	1	22%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	1.9	3	0.69	1	24%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	2	0.67	0	23%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.7	0	0.55	0	24%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.43	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.7	3	0.43	0	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	3	0.58	3	13%	0
CBJ M. Knies	1.6	1	0.68	1	25%	0
BUF J.Kulich	1.6	4	0.39	0	19%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	0	0.54	1	20%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.6	1	0.46	0	10%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.6	3	0.38	0	16%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	3	0.33	0	7%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	3	0.43	0	19%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.3	0	0.36	1	9%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.2	3	0.42	2	20%	2
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	1	0.25	1	5%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	0	0.39	0	8%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	0	0.47	1	13%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.0	0	0.25	0	12%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.8	2	0.16	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.8	2	0.16	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.7	2	0.14	0	2%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	0	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.