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Game Recap
CBJ1
CAR4
CAR beat CBJ 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.56 expected goals to 1.76. J. Martinook led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Fabbro had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Tokarski stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 8:28CARS. AhoSH0.18 xG
- 1st 19:08CARW. Carrier0.21 xG
- 2nd 15:52CBJD. Voronkov0.22 xG
- 2nd 17:16CARJ. Martinook0.13 xG
- 3rd 6:19CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.04 xG
Team Stats
CBJCAR
28Shots on goal28
1.76Expected goals2.56
46Shot attempts64
205v5 shots on goal21
0/5Power play0/3
23Hits17
16Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes10
26Giveaways24
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 1.76 xGCAR 2.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:32 | 6:01 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:00 | 6:09 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 6:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:26 | 6:03 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:34 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:48 | 3:18 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:39 | 3:08 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:07 | 0:55 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:23 | 0:13 |
| M. Pyyhtia | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:22 |
| K. Labanc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:23 | 2:48 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:46 | 3:40 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:23 | 5:59 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:13 | 0:23 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:12 |
| J. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Merzlikins | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Greaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:01 | 4:26 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:24 | 4:26 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 4:31 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15:02 | 1:19 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:41 | 4:19 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 1:14 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 1:26 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 1:16 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:03 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:28 | 4:29 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:16 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tokarski | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 2.6, CAR 4.0 | CBJ 1, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 25.8, CAR 35.5 | CBJ 28, CAR 28 |
| Win chance | CAR 71% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR M. Necas | 3.1 | 1 | 1.16 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.05 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.8 | 4 | 1.26 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 2.5 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.2 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Riemsdyk | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Labanc | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Kuraly | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Pyyhtia | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Johnson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.