Game Recap: CBJ 2, CAR 3, October 29, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ2

FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night

CAR3

CAR beat CBJ 3-2, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 2.31. S. Jarvis led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	0	2	2
CAR	1	1	1	3

1st 15:51CARJ. Martinook0.08 xG
2nd 7:47CARL. Stankoven0.14 xG
3rd 0:16CARM. Jankowski0.22 xG
3rd 6:56CBJD. Mateychuk0.08 xG
3rd 9:50CBJK. JohnsonPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

CBJCAR

26Shots on goal27

2.31Expected goals2.59

50Shot attempts56

215v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play0/2

27Hits16

16Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways20

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.31 xGCAR 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ24 on goal, 2 scored

CAR27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:47	3:18
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	-2	2	18:02	3:21
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:17	0:08
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	4	5	1	0	0	22:17	3:18
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:02	0:05
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	17:04	3:22
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	16:17	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	15:20	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:27	0:04
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:09	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:14	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:26	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-2	0	28:47	3:21
D. Mateychuk	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	24:54	0:08
J. Christiansen	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	14:39	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	19:11	0:05
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	15:43	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	13:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	27	24	3	.889	58:51	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	RW	0	2	2	3	1	1	+1	0	16:25	1:09
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	18:05	1:04
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	17:48	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	17:08	1:08
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:47	2:10
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:56	2:08
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	19:35	2:11
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:38	2:10
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:23	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:32	0:07
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:01	0:51
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	7:25	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	0	22:53	0:18
J. Chatfield	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	21:34	0:18
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	23:30	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	2	20:17	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:07	2:22
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:49	0:39

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1V. Nichushkin16:04A. Fantilli17:32K. Johnson16:28

Line 2M. Olivier13:51M. Knies13:42C. Coyle12:38

Line 3S. Monahan13:15C. Sillinger14:16C. Garland12:23

Line 4D. Heinen8:22R. Lomberg8:14L. Belluz7:26

Pair 1D. Severson18:13Z. Werenski22:36

Pair 2D. Mateychuk21:28J. Christiansen14:07

Pair 3E. Gudbranson13:43D. Fabbro12:47

CAR

Line 1A. Svechnikov16:31S. Aho14:45W. Carrier13:23

Line 2L. Stankoven15:20J. Blake14:21N. Ehlers13:10

Line 3M. Jankowski14:12J. Martinook14:17S. Jarvis13:26

Line 4N. Deslauriers7:25E. Robinson9:56J. Kotkaniemi7:10

Pair 1J. Slavin20:34J. Chatfield19:36

Pair 2K. Miller19:51S. Walker17:22

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:36J. Välimäki12:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	+115	-130	1	Under
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+110	-135	1	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	+106	-125	3	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+150	-188	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	2.5	+100	-110	1	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	+162	-195	3	Over
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.5	+100	-115	1	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	+116	-125	3	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	+100	-120	2	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	1.5	+135	-170	2	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	+130	-175	3	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	-110	+105	2	Over
CAR S. Walker	1.5	-105	+100	1	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	+104	-125	1	Under
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	+120	-135	2	Over

5 of 34 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+175	-210	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
CBJ D. Heinen	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+950	-3500	1	Over
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+2600	-5000	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+525	-700	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+2300	-4000	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+475	-900	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+490	-700	1	Over
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1600	-2500	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+370	-500	1	Over
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
CBJ L. Belluz	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+230	-240	1	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+425	-500	1	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+420	-700	0	Under

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+220	-235	1	Over
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+215	-255	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+120	-155	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+115	-140	1	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+100	-120	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+180	-210	2	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+380	-450	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-175	+150	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+135	-140	1	Over
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-170	+140	1	Over
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+120	-135	1	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	-115	-105	1	Over
CAR M. Jankowski	0.5	+155	-175	1	Over
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-170	+150	1	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-210	+180	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	-130	+100	2	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+210	-235	1	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over

3 of 14 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+500	-800	1	Over
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+230	-260	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+500	-650	1	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+175	-225	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+270	-295	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CBJ J. Greaves	26.5	-102	-105	24	Under
CAR P. Kochetkov	19.5	-125	+100	24	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.5, CAR 3.5	CBJ 2, CAR 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	CBJ 22.5, CAR 32.0	CBJ 26, CAR 27
Win chance	CAR 65%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	2.6	1	0.80	1	16%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	1	0.98	0	33%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	1	0.78	0	28%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	3	0.75	2	28%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	3	0.62	1	25%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	4	0.71	0	28%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.4	1	0.80	1	25%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	0	0.83	1	27%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	1	0.35	0	10%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.7	1	0.56	0	23%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	2	0.60	0	13%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	3	0.32	1	8%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	2	0.54	1	20%	1
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	3	0.63	1	21%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.6	1	0.30	1	9%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	2	0.36	0	14%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	3	0.40	0	18%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	3	0.39	1	15%	1
CBJ M. Knies	1.5	1	0.64	0	23%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	3	0.44	0	11%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.4	2	0.36	0	13%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.4	0	0.36	0	15%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.4	1	0.47	1	17%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.3	2	0.43	1	20%	1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.33	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	2	0.32	1	10%	1
CBJ D. Severson	1.1	0	0.38	0	9%	0
CAR J. Välimäki	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.13	0	6%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.13	0	6%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.7	2	0.14	0	3%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.6	0	0.16	0	6%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	3	0.11	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.