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Game Recap
CBJ1
CGY5
CGY beat CBJ 5-1, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 2.96. CBJ outshot CGY 43 to 26. I. Provorov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Wolf stopped 42 of 43.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CGY | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 0:56CGYM. Frost0.11 xG
- 1st 1:32CGYB. Coleman0.04 xG
- 1st 6:57CBJK. MarchenkoSH0.15 xG
- 2nd 7:47CGYN. Kadri0.17 xG
- 2nd 8:24CGYA. Klapka0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:11CGYM. BacklundEN0.67 xG
Team Stats
CBJCGY
43Shots on goal26
2.96Expected goals3.10
85Shot attempts43
275v5 shots on goal20
0/1Power play0/2
18Hits24
10Blocked shots23
6Penalty minutes4
19Giveaways13
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CBJ 2.96 xGCGY 3.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Marchenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:37 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:25 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:55 | 0:23 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:23 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:56 | 1:37 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 1:34 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 1:35 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| Z. Aston-Reese | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:28 | 1:37 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 23:47 | 0:26 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:23 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| D. Mayo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 55:40 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 2:25 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:55 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:31 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:58 |
| S. Honzek | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:07 |
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:07 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 2:27 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 2:29 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 1:28 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 1:24 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 21:29 | 1:30 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:07 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:06 | 2:32 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko13:59D. Voronkov12:05S. Monahan11:16
Line 2M. Olivier12:03C. Sillinger13:01C. Coyle11:41
Line 3B. Jenner11:37A. Fantilli14:22M. Wood11:11
Line 4I. Lundestrom10:52Z. Aston-Reese10:13K. Johnson9:57
Pair 1Z. Werenski21:36D. Fabbro19:49
Pair 2D. Severson17:38I. Provorov18:04
Pair 3D. Mayo7:29J. Christiansen10:27
CGY
Line 1N. Kadri14:45C. Zary13:41J. Farabee11:46
Line 2B. Coleman12:40S. Honzek12:17M. Backlund11:09
Line 3M. Frost11:11M. Coronato11:53J. Huberdeau12:29
Line 4Y. Sharangovich11:40A. Klapka9:55R. Lomberg8:37
Pair 2K. Bahl17:06R. Andersson16:33
Pair 3B. Pachal13:26Y. Kuznetsov13:20
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CBJ 3.2, CGY 3.3 | CBJ 1, CGY 5 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CBJ 29.2, CGY 33.0 | CBJ 43, CGY 26 |
| Win chance | CGY 52% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.6 | 3 | 0.96 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 5 | 0.77 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.6 | 5 | 0.71 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.3 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.3 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.2 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.1 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.7 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY S. Honzek | 1.5 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 6 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CBJ Z. Aston-Reese | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mayo | 0.5 | 3 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.