Game Recap: CBJ 0, COL 4, January 10, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ0

FinalSat, Jan 10, 2026Every game that night

COL4

COL beat CBJ 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.41 expected goals to 2.98. B. Burns led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 4.4. T. Miner stopped 29 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	0	0	0	0
COL	2	1	1	4

1st 13:58COLB. Burns0.12 xG
1st 17:28COLV. Olofsson0.09 xG
2nd 10:30COLI. Solovyov0.01 xG
3rd 8:33COLB. Burns0.03 xG

Team Stats

CBJCOL

29Shots on goal31

2.98Expected goals2.41

72Shot attempts68

275v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/2

18Hits6

22Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways10

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 2.98 xGCOL 2.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ29 on goal, 0 scored

COL30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Marchenko	RW	4	1	0	-1	2	20:01	2:47
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	2	0	2	19:58	1:16
B. Jenner	C	2	4	1	0	0	17:14	1:12
C. Coyle	C	3	1	0	0	0	16:34	2:48
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	0	0	16:29	2:44
S. Monahan	C	0	0	2	0	0	15:54	2:47
D. Voronkov	LW	1	2	2	-1	0	14:04	1:13
M. Olivier	RW	0	5	0	-2	0	12:27	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	2	3	0	-3	0	11:39	0:00
M. Pyyhtia	LW	2	0	2	-2	0	11:39	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	2	0	0	-2	0	11:29	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	1	1	0	-1	0	11:14	0:00
I. Provorov	D	1	0	2	-3	0	24:25	0:54
Z. Werenski	D	5	0	1	-1	0	22:23	3:06
D. Severson	D	2	1	3	-1	0	22:21	1:13
D. Mateychuk	D	2	0	2	0	0	16:55	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	-2	0	15:51	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	4	-1	0	15:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	31	27	4	.871	60:00	Loss
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kelly	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	14:38	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	2	13:23	0:34
G. Brindley	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	10:08	0:45
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	15:18	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:15	0:47
Z. Bardakov	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	9:54	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:51	3:15
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:34	3:14
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	8	0	1	0	2	20:08	3:25
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:25	3:13
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:16	0:43
T. Tynan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	8:13	0:00
B. Burns	D	2	0	2	4	0	0	+3	0	20:04	1:11
I. Solovyov	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	11:56	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:37	2:49
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	20:41	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	20:22	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	19:24	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Miner	29	29	0	1.000	59:53	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko17:07A. Fantilli18:35C. Coyle12:27

Line 2B. Jenner14:39S. Monahan12:40K. Johnson13:45

Line 3M. Olivier10:57D. Voronkov12:51C. Sillinger10:09

Line 4D. Heinen11:27M. Pyyhtia10:52B. Gaunce10:08

Pair 1D. Severson21:08I. Provorov21:08

Pair 2Z. Werenski18:41D. Mateychuk14:57

Pair 3E. Zamula14:14D. Fabbro13:40

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:36M. Necas17:24A. Lehkonen15:57

Line 2P. Kelly13:23J. Drury13:33V. Olofsson12:46

Line 3V. Nichushkin13:06R. Colton12:28B. Nelson12:56

Line 4Z. Bardakov9:54G. Brindley9:23T. Tynan8:13

Pair 1C. Makar19:07S. Malinski18:26

Pair 2B. Burns17:14J. Manson18:41

Pair 3S. Girard18:39I. Solovyov11:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamValeri Nichushkin CBJ First game back in Denver, his team until May 20260 SOG
Old teamCharlie Coyle CBJ Faces COL, his team until May 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 2.8, COL 4.2	CBJ 0, COL 4
Total goals	7.0	4
Shots on goal	CBJ 27.1, COL 36.1	CBJ 29, COL 31
Win chance	COL 71%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	8	1.59	0	43%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	5	0.77	0	16%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	0	1.16	0	29%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.8	0	0.90	0	36%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.7	1	0.97	0	37%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	4	0.65	0	27%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	1.13	0	32%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.5	1	0.58	0	25%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	2	0.76	0	30%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.3	2	0.50	0	23%	0
COL B. Burns	2.1	4	0.45	2	12%	2
COL R. Colton	2.0	1	0.49	1	19%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	3	0.40	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.7	1	0.44	0	20%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	2	0.45	2	20%	1
COL J. Manson	1.7	0	0.43	0	10%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	0	0.54	0	18%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	1	0.35	0	7%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.5	1	0.31	0	11%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.5	1	0.41	2	17%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	1	0.30	2	13%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.4	3	0.45	0	17%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	1	0.36	1	14%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	0	0.31	0	14%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.3	2	0.20	0	11%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	1	0.35	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	2	0.33	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	2	0.38	0	9%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	2	0.35	0	7%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.9	1	0.22	1	3%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	0.8	2	0.22	0	10%	0
COL T. Tynan	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.8	0	0.28	1	8%	0
CBJ M. Pyyhtia	0.7	2	0.13	0	7%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.5	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.