Game Recap: CBJ 4, DET 3 (SO), April 7, 2026

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Game Recap

CBJ4

Final/SOTue, Apr 7, 2026Every game that night

DET3

CBJ beat DET 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.34 expected goals to 3.30. J. Faulk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Faulk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Greaves stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CBJ	1	1	1	1	4
DET	1	1	1	0	3

1st 2:06CBJD. Heinen0.18 xG
1st 10:27DETD. LarkinPP0.17 xG
2nd 6:27DETJ. Faulk0.14 xG
2nd 10:59CBJZ. WerenskiPP0.03 xG
3rd 15:14DETJ. Faulk0.05 xG
3rd 19:43CBJA. Fantilli0.08 xG

Team Stats

CBJDET

35Shots on goal37

3.34Expected goals3.30

79Shot attempts77

255v5 shots on goal26

1/4Power play1/1

20Hits26

23Blocked shots25

4Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways14

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.34 xGDET 3.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ34 on goal, 3 scored

DET36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	25:08	4:15
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	24:49	4:35
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	19:43	4:21
D. Heinen	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:19	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	22:18	3:44
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	16:34	1:19
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	15:58	0:33
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:37	1:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:35	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:24	1:03
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	7:54	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:51	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	6	0	5	0	0	33:26	4:55
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	21:08	1:15
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	23:49	0:48
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:15	0:20
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:36	0:02
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	5:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	37	34	3	.919	63:58	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	1	2	5	4	0	+1	0	23:20	0:51
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	5	2	0	+1	0	17:54	0:51
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:33	0:00
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:48	0:51
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	20:33	0:51
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	19:34	0:00
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	8	0	+1	0	16:32	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:06	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	4	13:52	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	7:57	0:00
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	6:55	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6:40	0:00
J. Faulk	D	2	0	2	6	0	1	+2	0	23:40	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	0	3	8	-1	0	29:33	0:51
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	4	22:24	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	26:49	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	12:38	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	9:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	35	32	3	.914	65:00	OT loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle14:07C. Garland14:50K. Marchenko16:00

Line 2C. Sillinger13:26A. Fantilli15:50K. Johnson8:21

Line 3B. Jenner14:27D. Heinen13:19M. Marchment13:38

Line 4M. Wood7:54S. Monahan12:45I. Lundestrom6:51

Pair 1Z. Werenski24:55D. Fabbro18:18

Pair 2I. Provorov20:06D. Mateychuk17:31

Pair 3E. Gudbranson14:20J. Christiansen5:47

DET

Line 1D. Larkin16:38L. Raymond16:06E. Finnie15:47

Line 2P. Kane14:22A. DeBrincat14:51A. Copp13:39

Line 3D. Perron12:50M. Kasper13:31J. Compher13:25

Line 4J. Riemsdyk6:40C. Mazur6:55M. Rasmussen6:25

Pair 1M. Seider20:48S. Edvinsson19:58

Pair 2B. Chiarot19:38J. Faulk20:19

Pair 3A. Sandin-Pellikka9:34A. Johansson10:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCam Talbot CBJ First game back in Detroit, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
HometownZach Werenski CBJ Plays near home (born in Grosse Pointe)1 G, 1 A, 6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CBJ 3.1, DET 3.2	CBJ 4, DET 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	CBJ 26.6, DET 28.4	CBJ 35, DET 37
Win chance	DET 52%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	5	1.04	1	37%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.0	6	0.91	2	19%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.8	5	0.84	2	32%	1
DET P. Kane	2.8	1	0.94	1	27%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.4	3	0.75	1	28%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.4	3	0.69	1	27%	1
DET M. Seider	2.4	0	0.68	1	12%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	3	0.93	0	28%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	3	0.50	0	22%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.65	1	25%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.61	0	20%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	2	0.60	1	18%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	3	0.55	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.39	0	13%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.5	6	0.41	2	10%	2
DET E. Finnie	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	2	0.41	0	16%	0
DET D. Perron	1.5	0	0.46	0	20%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.4	1	0.29	0	14%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	3	0.34	0	8%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	1	0.43	0	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	2	0.18	1	7%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.3	0	0.39	0	15%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.2	2	0.23	0	11%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	4	0.37	0	12%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.1	2	0.37	0	15%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.0	0	0.26	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	1	0.35	1	11%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	3	0.30	1	14%	1
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.22	0	6%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.9	3	0.29	0	9%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.14	0	5%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.6	1	0.08	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.