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Game Recap
CBJ4
Final/OTMon, Nov 10, 2025Every game that night
EDM5

EDM beat CBJ 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 3.19. J. Walman led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Coyle had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Skinner stopped 18 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
CBJ12104
EDM10315
  1. 1st 11:42CBJI. Provorov0.04 xG
  2. 1st 17:28EDMJ. Walman0.04 xG
  3. 2nd 1:39CBJS. Monahan0.15 xG
  4. 2nd 18:02CBJB. Jenner0.13 xG
  5. 3rd 0:58EDMC. McDavid0.04 xG
  6. 3rd 4:19CBJA. Fantilli0.17 xG
  7. 3rd 13:39EDMC. McDavid0.43 xG
  8. 3rd 19:02EDMJ. WalmanSH0.05 xG
  9. OT 0:56EDMJ. Roslovic0.25 xG

Team Stats

CBJEDM
22Shots on goal24
3.19Expected goals2.89
71Shot attempts50
165v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/1
11Hits23
13Blocked shots27
11Penalty minutes13
19Giveaways18
7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CBJ 3.19 xGEDM 2.89 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTCBJ goal, 11:42EDM goal, 17:28CBJ goal, 1:39CBJ goal, 18:02EDM goal, 0:58CBJ goal, 4:19EDM goal, 13:39EDM goal, 19:02EDM goal, 0:56

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CBJ21 on goal, 4 scored
EDM23 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CBJ Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. JennerC1124100018:591:21
A. FantilliC112302+1017:311:05
K. MarchenkoRW011100-1019:422:41
S. MonahanC1011000018:402:37
K. JohnsonC0111010013:180:55
C. CoyleC000420-1018:161:23
D. VoronkovLW000110-1215:491:48
M. OlivierRW0000110513:460:14
E. ChinakhovRW000100-1012:370:00
I. LundestromC0000000010:240:00
Z. Aston-ReeseLW000020029:190:00
L. Del Bel BelluzC000003008:170:00
Z. WerenskiD011411-2027:392:55
I. ProvorovD1011000026:261:45
D. SeversonD011113+1018:471:05
D. FabbroD011000+1015:300:00
D. MateychukD000011-1019:411:20
J. ChristiansenD0000110212:070:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Greaves24195.79260:56OT loss
E. Merzlikins000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC202510+2223:321:53
J. RoslovicC112201+3221:501:56
V. PodkolzinRW011150+2016:520:00
L. DraisaitlC000220+3023:511:55
A. HenriqueC000103-2014:240:32
M. SavoieC000200-1014:160:04
A. MangiapaneLW000310-3014:000:00
T. FredericC0000110511:381:28
M. JanmarkC000100009:590:00
I. HowardLW000120008:570:07
N. PhilpC000020-108:290:00
C. LazarC000030028:020:00
J. WalmanD213421+2022:130:31
M. EkholmD0111030019:590:05
E. BouchardD011013+1219:511:29
D. NurseD000113-1020:390:00
B. KulakD000006-1019:250:00
T. EmbersonD000026-1016:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner22184.81860:49Win
C. Pickard000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko15:00A. Fantilli15:01D. Voronkov14:01
Line 2B. Jenner15:55S. Monahan14:24K. Johnson12:23
Line 3C. Coyle13:42E. Chinakhov11:19M. Olivier12:48
Line 4Z. Aston-Reese9:14L. Belluz8:17I. Lundestrom9:51
Pair 1Z. Werenski20:49I. Provorov21:20
Pair 2D. Severson17:02D. Mateychuk16:05
Pair 3D. Fabbro14:27J. Christiansen11:42

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl17:51J. Roslovic17:58V. Podkolzin15:32
Line 2M. Savoie12:16C. McDavid19:13A. Mangiapane13:26
Line 3A. Henrique10:53T. Frederic10:10I. Howard8:50
Line 4M. Janmark9:59C. Lazar7:54N. Philp7:55
Pair 1D. Nurse18:44J. Walman19:00
Pair 2T. Emberson15:06B. Kulak17:30
Pair 3M. Ekholm16:51E. Bouchard14:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCBJ 3.1, EDM 3.7CBJ 4, EDM 5
Total goals6.89
Shots on goalCBJ 27.7, EDM 33.4CBJ 22, EDM 24
Win chanceEDM 59%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.351.69240%2
EDM E. Bouchard3.100.95119%0
EDM L. Draisaitl3.021.44047%0
CBJ Z. Werenski2.940.76117%0
CBJ K. Marchenko2.510.77129%0
EDM J. Roslovic2.320.66224%1
CBJ A. Fantilli2.230.61224%1
EDM D. Nurse2.110.40010%0
EDM M. Ekholm2.010.45110%0
CBJ D. Voronkov2.010.61024%0
CBJ B. Jenner2.040.49222%1
EDM J. Walman2.040.46312%2
CBJ S. Monahan1.910.70121%1
EDM V. Podkolzin1.710.41115%0
CBJ K. Johnson1.610.57119%0
EDM A. Henrique1.510.43020%0
EDM A. Mangiapane1.430.46021%0
CBJ E. Chinakhov1.410.30013%0
CBJ C. Coyle1.340.47017%0
EDM B. Kulak1.300.2405%0
EDM M. Savoie1.320.20012%0
EDM T. Frederic1.300.30016%0
CBJ I. Provorov1.210.3418%1
CBJ M. Olivier1.200.32013%0
EDM N. Philp1.200.25011%0
CBJ L. Belluz1.100.40013%0
CBJ D. Severson1.110.3319%0
EDM I. Howard1.110.26013%0
CBJ D. Mateychuk1.000.3109%0
CBJ D. Fabbro0.900.2416%0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese0.900.1808%0
EDM T. Emberson0.900.2104%0
EDM M. Janmark0.810.25010%0
EDM C. Lazar0.700.2009%0
CBJ I. Lundestrom0.600.1808%0
CBJ J. Christiansen0.500.0802%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.